ROCHESTER, N.Y. – Just a couple of days ago, we heard that rainfall was “off the charts” in several parts of the country — from portions of New Mexico, to the devastation in Texas, and even across the Carolinas over the past week.
Flooding can result from a combination of factors. Rain intensity is obviously the biggest consideration, but it is not the only one. Duration of rainfall adds complexity to any flood forecast. Long-lasting storms can overwhelm even well-prepared areas. Urbanization and drainage are critical as well. In developed areas, poor drainage systems (especially clogged or poorly maintained ones) can quickly lead to flash flooding. Lastly, soil saturation plays a major role. When the ground is already saturated from recent rain, it simply can not absorb any more water, leading to increased runoff and higher flood risk.
If we take a closer look at Rochester Airport’s precipitation data, the longer-term trends reveal a “feast or famine” pattern.
February and March saw precipitation amounts close to normal. But during the spring months, rainfall spiked significantly. For instance, June ended with 177 percent of the normal monthly precipitation. The combined totals for May and June hit over 170 percent of normal — a substantial surplus.Yet despite that wet stretch, July has started off extremely dry. So far, a little over a week into the month, the rain gauge at the airport is at just 1percent of normal.
This kind of variability is typical in the summer. Rainfall can be very localized — and recent measurements across the News10NBC viewing area show just that:
Areas like Rush and Brockport have only recorded about 0.1 inch of rain. Meanwhile, locations to the east , like Penn Yan and Waterloo, are closer to 1 inch so far.This underscores how scattered summer storms can lead to large differences in rainfall even across short distances. And while it may seem drier now, there is the potential for conditions to change rapidly. A warming climate means a greater degree of variability.
First Alert Weather In-Depth: Flooding ingredients and rainfall trends across the region WHEC.com.
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