Has Brexit really caused the small boats crisis? ...Middle East

Emmanuel Macron has blamed Brexit for the UK’s migration crisis, as a new deal was announced between Britain and France to tackle small boats crossing the English Channel.

For the first time, people who arrive on a small boat will be detained and returned to France, with an asylum seeker being sent to the UK in exchange.

At a press conference with Sir Keir Starmer, the French President said the measure would have a “deterrent effect” beyond the numbers actually returned.

Reports have suggested just 50 migrants a week will be sent back to France, a small fraction of the numbers crossing – 21,117 so far this year.

Macron suggested that Brexit was at fault for the Channel crisis, as it left the UK without a returns agreement with the European Union, creating an “incentive to make the crossing.”

But was he correct?

The UK narrowly voted to leave the European Union (EU) in 2016, but did not withdraw from the bloc fully until four years later.

Small boats crossings were considered rare before 2018, when 297 people arrived in the UK.

In the following years, the numbers grew steadily, reaching 8,466 in 2020 – the year the UK completed its withdrawal from the EU.

Crossings leapt to 28,526 people the following year, reaching a peak of 45,755 in 2022, before falling to 29,437 in 2023.

The figure rose once again to 36,816 in 2024. So far this year, 21,117 people have arrived by small boat – up 56 per cent when compared to the same period in 2024.

Speaking at today’s press conference, Macron said UK voters were “sold a lie” with Brexit and told it would “make it possible to fight more effectively against illegal immigration”.

People trying to board a small boat in Gravelines, France last week (Photo: Dan Kitwood/Getty)

But because it left the UK without a returns agreement “it creates an incentive to make the crossing, the precise opposite of what Brexit had promised”.

Earlier this month, Dr Peter Walsh, a senior researcher and lecturer at the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory, suggested that the lack of a returns agreement could be contributing to the rise in numbers.

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“There’s emerging evidence that Brexit is having an impact, and particularly our departure from the Dublin system, which allowed asylum seekers to be transferred to countries of first entry, and our departure from the European asylum fingerprints database – Eurodac,” he said.

The UK has reportedly requested use of the EU database, but has been rejected.

People who have had their asylum claims refused by EU countries see the UK as a last resort, Dr Walsh added.

“When people have claimed asylum in an EU country and have been refused, they understand that if they can get to the UK…we won’t know whether that individual has claimed asylum in another country, because we don’t have access to the EU data which would tell us they have already entered.

“Otherwise, that would be a basis for a refusal and an attempt at removal. In a sense, it’s another bite of the cherry if you can get to the UK.”

Global conflict and a lack of legal routes

While there is evidence to suggest that Brexit may have created added incentives for asylum seekers to aim for the UK, there are a number of underlying factors that also explain the rise in Channel crossings over recent years.

First and foremost is global conflict, which drives people from their homes and forces them to seek refuge abroad.

More conflicts are currently taking place across the world than at any time since 1945 – 59 wars in more than 35 countries.

The war in Afghanistan – which displaced millions – came to an end in 2021, but fear of the Taliban only triggered further waves of migration.

Millions also fled Syria throughout the 14-year civil war which ended with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime last year.

Today, Sudanese people are the biggest national group in Calais, as the war which began in 2023 rages on.

In 2024, 99 per cent of those crossing the Channel sought asylum, meaning they requested refuge in the UK on the grounds of persecution or threat in their own country.

To claim asylum in the UK, a person must be physically in the UK. There is no visa to travel to the UK to make an asylum claim.

The UK does have some routes for other kinds of refugee resettlement in the UK – separate from the asylum process. Most are nationality specific – for Afghans, Ukrainians and Hong Kongers – while some are run by the UN, but people cannot apply for these.

According to Oxford’s Migration Observatory, the current rules mean that people who do not have another form of visa – or are from the 67 countries which need visas to get to the UK – do not have a legal route to seek asylum in the UK.

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Those who do not have access to a passport, either because they never had one or because it was lost or abandoned during the rush to flee their home, also cannot travel to the UK safely to seek asylum, the organisation said.

This leaves unofficial routes, such small boats, as their only option.

Migrants have been driven towards attempting to cross on small boats by crackdowns on other unauthorised routes.

After 2014, the British and French governments invested in enhanced security in and around French ports and the Eurotunnel to prevent migrants being smuggled across the border in lorries.

Organisations such as the UK’s Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration, the UN Refugee Agency, and the Institute for Public Policy Research, have argued that these measures led to more people crossing in small boats.

The increased number of crossings in 2025 can also be partially explained by the hot weather, which tends to mean stiller waters.

This year has been disproportionately warm, with two heatwaves already sweeping the UK and a “unprecedented season of warmth” this spring, according to the Met Office.

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