Beware of fiery Chinese dragons proffering peace proposals to end the bloody fighting in Ukraine. They are not what they seem to be.
In February, Chinese officials floated the idea of Xi Jinping hosting a peace summit with President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Team Trump wisely rejected Xi as an intermediary, given the growing military and economic alliance between Moscow and Beijing.
Xi’s offer was indeed a Trojan Horse, designed, at best, to obtain Ukraine’s unconditional surrender at the expense of the U.S., and, at worst, calculated to buy Putin time as his military is bogged down in a war of attrition.
Now we are seeing China’s real intentions. Beijing increasingly views Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a useful proxy war against the U.S.
Team Trump admirably wants to end the senseless bloodshed. Xi, however, is now aiming to prolong the war so as to strategically deplete U.S. weapons and munitions stockpiles and to provide the Kremlin time to rebuild its badly mauled military.
Beijing’s participation in Putin’s war was indirect at first, coming in the form of cheap oil and gas purchases and then dual use technologies.
Now, Xi is dropping the pretense. Last week in Brussels, Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, said the quiet part out loud. During a private conversation with Kaja Kallas, he made clear that “Beijing can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine as this could allow the United States to turn its full attention to China.”
Then, on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky brought receipts. Ukraine’s Security Service, sifting through the wreckage of Putin’s massive July 4 attack on Kyiv, found evidence that five Chinese companies were directly supplying key components of the Russian-built version of the Iranian Shahed 136/131 drone.
Ukraine immediately imposed economic sanctions on the five Chinese companies whose stamped parts were found in the drones — Central Asia Silk Road International Trade, Suzhou Ecod Precision Manufacturing, Shenzhen Royo Technology, Shenzhen Jinduobang Technology, and Ningbo BLIN Machinery.
Since the beginning of the war in February 2022, Beijing has taken an official stance of neutrality. In reality, however, Xi is fully colluding with Putin.
We have long warned of this growing ideological war that Russia and China alongside their Axis of Evil partners — Iran and North Korea — are waging against Washington and Brussels. It is increasingly kinetic and fast becoming global in nature.
This is a world war. It's is not Hollywood’s version of such a war — no mushroom clouds or nightmare day-after scenarios — but rather a war of death by a thousand cuts.
Putin’s use of Chechen troops was its first indicator. Then his support of Oct. 7. to cover his counteroffensive in Avdiivka. Then North Korean soldiers, and now reportedly 50 Laotian engineers. Beijing is a key investor in Laos, including the China-Laos Economic Corridor and the China-Laos Railway.
Now Beijing’s role is increasingly in the open. Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO, connected all of these dots in an interview with The New York Times.
Rutte warned: “If Xi Jinping would attack Taiwan, he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, residing in Moscow, and telling him, ‘Hey, I’m going to do this, and I need you to keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory.”
In that context, it is easy to see how China now views Putin’s war against Ukraine as its own proxy war against the U.S. The connective tissue between Ukraine and Taiwan is very real and their fates intertwined.
If the West loses in Ukraine, Xi gets a win, because Putin then would be freed to use his rebuilt military against NATO. If Putin is defeated in Ukraine, then Team Trump could inflict a serious loss upon Xi — and go a long way in deterring Beijing in Taiwan and elsewhere across the Indo-Pacific.
Beijing is actively preparing for this fight. China, according to John Noh, Trump’s acting Secretary of Defense for Indo-Security Affairs, is building “a large and advanced arsenal of nuclear, conventional, cyber and space capabilities" and "aims to dominate the Indo-Pacific region and displace the United States as the world's most powerful nation.”
Xi’s proxy war against Trump in Ukraine is only Beijing’s opening act. If we are to win this second cold war, then ensuring Putin’s defeat in Ukraine must become a strategic end state for the White House. The two conflicts are indeed connected.
Trump’s greenlighting of defensive weapons for Ukraine is a welcome first step. But more is needed to address the drone threat. Patriot missile batteries have no utility against them, and Russia apparently has no shortage of them. In June, the Russians launched 5,438 drones toward Ukrainian cities. On Tuesday night, Putin launched another 728 drones and 13 missiles at Ukraine. NATO was forced to scramble fighter jets in response to its Kinzhal and Iskander missiles.
Team Trump needs to reinstate and then build upon then-President Joe Biden’s “surge in security assistance and series of additional actions to help Ukraine win this war” provided in September and December 2024.
Winning the war requires offensive actions — defeating weapon systems at their launch sites with deep strikes while interdicting Russian troop formations and their equipment before they can cross the border into Ukraine. Both require weapon systems, munitions, intelligence, and authorizations to strike targets in Russia.
The U.S. and NATO must stop the Russian attacks if Putin is unwilling to stop them himself. No more sanctuary can be afforded to Russia by Western weapons and their munitions. Coupled with the sanctions bill authored by Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), they will likely have a crippling effect on Russia’s ability to continue to wage war on Ukraine.
Air defense remains critical. As we have stated before, “Ukraine needs a sustained, integrated and layered air defense network, including a no-fly zone, similar to the one Israel employed to defeat two Iranian missile attacks in April and October of 2024.” Piecemealing weapon systems into Ukraine does not solve the problem.
Likewise, our European partners must do more as well. That begins with the implementation of a coalition no-fly zone over western Ukraine — the European Sky Shield initiative.
China’s proxy war against the U.S. in Ukraine is just getting started. Team Trump winning in Ukraine is now a national imperative and it requires an “all-in” approach.
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer.
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