We might call it “Operation Keep Max Verstappen”. The threat of losing the best driver on earth to Mercedes would be problematic enough for any leader under pressure. Throw in a number of associated factors and it is a miracle Christian Horner lasted as long as he did.
The decline of Red Bull’s performance on track, the loss of key team personnel to rival teams, personal animosity between Horner and Jos Verstappen, the father of four-time world champion Max, the texting scandal involving a female member of staff, in which he was cleared of the wrongdoing he steadfastly denied, and the power reshuffle at Red Bull headquarters in Salzburg following the death of Red Bull magnate Dietrich Mateschitz were headwinds that ultimately speared him.
The timing was significant. Formula One is preparing for arguably the most radical regulatory shift in its 75-year history. The threat to the established order is compounded in Red Bull’s case by the shift from customer engines to manufacturer status.
The new engine regulations for 2026 and the consequent impact on chassis design would have been demanding enough had Red Bull stuck with long-term partner Honda, but the move to develop their own engines in conjunction with Ford is freighted with added difficulties associated with sweeping, root-and-branch change.
Since the whole grid is steering resources towards next season and F1 entering a summer recess with only two races across the next seven weeks, now is the time to act. Red Bull do not want to enter a critical new phase in the sport carrying forward the threads of unrest that have ultimately done for Horner.
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Ultimately the forces of history have been working against Horner since the death of Mateschitz three years ago, which triggered the usual manoeuverings behind the scenes. Oliver Mintzlaff assumed control of F1 along with other sports in Red Bull’s portfolio. This meant a different way of doing business and an opportunity for Red Bull to recentre the F1 power in Salzburg and away from Milton Keynes.
There was a sense at Red Bull HQ that the connection between Salzburg and the team had shifted too far to Horner’s Milton Keynes empire. Though Mintzlaff does not have Mateschitz’s executive power, he has huge influence over the direction the brand takes and was always keen to bring the control back to Austria.
Horner was protected by a winning team, but the moment McLaren took the constructor’s title, the architect of Red Bull’s 20-year F1 project was vulnerable. He survived because Verstappen delivered a fourth consecutive world drivers’ crown. Though Verstappen remains a threat on track it is clear he does not have the car to deliver a fifth world crown.
The speculation linking Verstappen to Mercedes made Mintzlaff jumpy. The best chance Red Bull have of making a success of the new regulations rests with holding on to their star driver. Yet Verstappen’s relationship with Red Bull was complicated by the venomous hatred of Horner by Verstappen’s father Jos, who pushed vehemently for a change of leadership during the texting scandal 18 months ago, when a female member of staff accused him of controlling and abusive behaviour.
Horner denied the allegations and was cleared via an independent inquiry and at appeal. However, the rumours of a potential move to Mercedes by Verstappen created a new tension. They were largely generated by Verstappen’s own management team, which fed speculation to the Dutch press.
Technically Jos Verstappen has no management role but is hugely influential within the circle of trust. A move to Mercedes was never likely next term because of the impossibility of judging the merit of any team before the new regs come into force. But the speculation was hugely disruptive, not only forcing Red Bull to answer questions on the subject at grands prix, but at HQ, where the decision-makers are one stepped removed from paddock dynamics and therefore feel more keenly the negative impact of paddock gossip.
It was bad enough Red Bull lost star designer Adrian Newey, especially so during a period of dramatic regulatory change, and experienced sporting director Jonathan Wheatley. To lose Verstappen would be an irreparable blow they could not risk. Thus did the rumours play a mischievous role, playing an incremental part in Horner’s exit and granting Verstappen Snr his wish.
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