We look ahead to this semi-final at the 2025 Club World Cup with our PSG vs Real Madrid prediction and preview. Can the European champions reach another final?
PSG vs Real Madrid Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer is backing PSG to win this one, giving them a 58.7% chance of progressing to the semi-finals. Real Madrid have never lost a FIFA Club World Cup match (W17 D3 L0) and have won 15 of their last 16 matches in the competition (including previous formats) dating back to 2014. PSG have won their last four knockout matches in all competitions by a combined score of 14-0.It’s a huge all-European tie in the Club World Cup’s second semi-final on Wednesday night as Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid go head-to-head in New Jersey.
PSG have recovered impressively since a surprise group-stage defeat to Botafogo, reeling off three consecutive wins to reach the final four. Each of those victories came without conceding a goal, and all four of their tournament wins – including their opener against Atlético Madrid – have seen PSG win by at least two goals.
Arguably their most impressive performance yet came in the quarter-finals, where they dispatched Bayern Munich 2-0. Desire Doué put PSG ahead with 12 minutes to play, but a chaotic finish saw both Willian Pacho and Lucas Hernandez sent off. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Luis Enrique’s men sealed their place in the semi-final thanks to a stoppage-time goal from substitute Ousmane Dembélé.
With Doué and Dembélé both on the scoresheet, PSG now have nine different goalscorers in this year’s competition, level with Manchester City and Chelsea for the most by any team in a single Club World Cup edition (excluding own goals).
Luis Enrique’s side also extended their remarkable run of knockout form, having now won their last four knockout ties across all competitions by a combined score of 14-0.
This meeting marks the fifth knockout tie between PSG and Real Madrid, but the first at the semi-final stage. PSG won the first two – in the 1992-93 UEFA Cup and 1993-94 Cup Winners’ Cup – but Madrid came out on top in the last two encounters, in the Champions League last 16 in 2017-18 and 2021-22.
Real Madrid’s 3-2 quarter-final win over Borussia Dortmund looked comfortable with the score at 2-0 heading into injury time. Maximilian Beier pulled one back for Dortmund, but Kylian Mbappé’s overhead kick quickly cancelled that out. However, a red card for new boy Dean Huijsen and a late penalty by Serhou Guirassy set up a tense finish. Only a stunning Thibaut Courtois save in the dying stages from Marcel Sabitzer denied BVB forcing extra-time.
Gonzalo García opened the scoring for the La Liga side with his fourth goal of the tournament. He has now contributed to a goal in all five of his Club World Cup appearances (4 goals, 1 assist) and at 21 years and 103 days old, is the youngest Madrid player since Jesé in 2014 to record goal contributions in five straight starts.
García is also joint-top scorer at the tournament, alongside Ángel Di María (Benfica), Marcos Leonardo (Al-Hilal), and Guirassy (Dortmund).
In total, PSG and Real Madrid have met 12 times, with Madrid narrowly ahead (W5 D3 L4).
Alonso’s side will be banking on their history in this competition. Real Madrid remain unbeaten in FIFA Club World Cup history (W17 D3 L0) and have won 15 of their last 16 matches in the tournament since 2014. The only blemish in that stretch came in this year’s group stage – a 1-1 draw with Al-Hilal.
PSG vs Real Madrid Prediction
PSG are the favourites to progress from this tie, winning inside 90 minutes in 47.4% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations, and making it to the final one way or another 58.7% of the time.
It is far from a foregone conclusion, though, with Real Madrid winning the tie 41.3% of the time. They win inside 90 minutes in 27.3% of the supercomputer’s pre-match simulations, and the game is sent to extra-time in the remaining 25.3% of simulations.
In its overall Club World Cup tournament predictions, the supercomputer has PSG as favourites, with the Parisians given a 39.3% chance of winning the whole tournament. Real Madrid are third favourites with a 24.6% chance of glory.
PSG vs Real Madrid Squads
Paris Saint-GermainGianluigi Donnarumma, Achraf Hakimi, Presnel Kimpembe, Lucas Beraldo, Marquinhos, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Fabián Ruiz, Gonçalo Ramos, Ousmane Dembele, Désiré Doué, Vitinha, Lee Kang-in, Gabriel Moscardo, Lucas Hernandez, Senny Mayulu, Nuno Mendes, Bradley Barcola, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Matvey Safonov, Yoram Zague, Noham Kamara, Naoufel El Hannach, Ibrahim Mbaye, Lucas Lavallée, Willian Pacho, Arnau Tenas, João Neves.
Head Coach: Luis Enrique
Real Madrid
Thibaut Courtois, Andriy Lunin, Fran González, Sergio Mestre, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, David Alaba, Lucas Vázquez, Fran García, Antonio Rüdiger, Ferland Mendy, Dean Huijsen, Youssef Enríquez, Jacobo Ramón, Diego Aguado, Raúl Asencio, Jesús Fortea, Jude Bellingham, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, Federico Valverde, Luka Modric, Arda Güler, Dani Ceballos, Chema Andres, Víctor Muñoz, Mario Martin, Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé, Rodrygo, Endrick, Gonzalo García, Brahim Díaz.
Head Coach: Xabi Alonso
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.
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PSG vs Real Madrid Prediction: 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Semi-Final Preview Opta Analyst.
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