Two of the favourites for the Women’s Euro 2025 title meet in the group stage. We preview the clash in Zurich with our France vs England prediction.
France vs England Stats: The Key Insights
This match is almost too close to predict, with the Opta supercomputer giving England the slightest edge over France. England head coach Sarina Wiegman has won all 12 of her matches at the UEFA Women’s European Championship. England defeated France in their last meeting in June 2024 and are looking to win back-to-back games versus the French for the first time since 1974.Saturday night brings together two of the favourites for the 2025 Women’s European Championship title as they meet in Zurich, with reigning champions England taking on France in Group D.
At the time of writing, only Spain (27.6%) are given a higher probability of winning this tournament than England (16.2%) or France (15.1%). Germany (13.7%) are the only other team with more than a 7% chance of glory according to the Opta supercomputer.
Despite the confidence of the supercomputer in France’s chances of success this summer, they have currently played the most matches at the UEFA Women’s European Championship without ever reaching a final (26), while only Italy (35) and Denmark (33) have played more games without winning the trophy.
England won the 2022 edition on home soil. No reigning champion has ever lost their first game at the next tournament (W7 D5), though the last three have all drawn – Germany in 2013 (0-0 vs Netherlands) and 2017 (0-0 vs Sweden) and Netherlands in 2022 (1-1 vs Sweden).
Their current head coach Sarina Wiegman has an unblemished record at the Women’s Euros, winning 12 out of 12 matches across spells with the Netherlands (6/6 in 2017) and England (6/6 in 2022). She’s the only manager with a 100% winning record in the competition, while only Tina Theune (13 wins in 15 games with Germany) has won more games at the tournament.
They come up against a French side who have a great recent record in European Championship group-stage games. They haven’t lost any of their last 10 group stage matches at the UEFA Women’s Euros (W6 D4) since suffering a 5-1 defeat to Germany in 2009. They’ve started each of their last five Euros tournaments with a win, since losing 3-0 to Norway in 2001.
The Lionesses have won three of their last six matches against France in all competitions (L3), more than they’d won in their first 21 games against them (W2 D9 L10). Following a 2-1 win in June 2024, the Lionesses are looking to win back-to-back games against Les Bleus for the first time since November 1974.
In fact, England have won their most recent meeting with each of their Group D opponents, beating France 2-1 in that June 2024 fixture, Netherlands in December 2023 (3-2) and Wales (3-0 in August 2018). They are the only team at Euro 2025 that has such a record against their fellow group members.
England enjoyed a fantastic 7-0 friendly win over Jamaica last weekend, albeit against opposition that were weakened by the absence of key players. With 33 shots and 0 conceded, it should have given them some confidence ahead of the tournament, with Ella Toone (two goals) and Beth Mead (six chances created) in particularly good form.
Alessia Russo, who finished as joint top scorer in the WSL last season with 12 goals for Arsenal, is expected to start in attack, while Manchester City’s Lauren Hemp should also expect to be in the starting XI just behind her – only two players created more open-play chances than she did (31) in the 2024-25 WSL.
Lauren James, who had been out injured since suffering a hamstring injury in April for Chelsea, managed to get 27 minutes on the pitch against Jamaica, but it’s likely that she’ll be used sporadically in the group stage to allow her to gain more match fitness.
Clara Matéo poses France’s biggest threat in attack following an excellent campaign at club level in 2024-25. With 18 goals in 20 league appearances for Paris FC, she topped the scoring charts in the French top flight last season, while Kadidiatou Diani impressed in the Women’s Champions League with 10 goal involvements (6 goals, 4 assists) in 10 games for OL Lyonnes.
France vs England Prediction
This match is almost too close to call based on the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match projections, but England (36.6%) just edge France out (36.3%).
With only 0.3% difference between the two sides’ chances of winning, a draw could be a strong possibility – that occurred in 27.1% of the 10,000 supercomputer sims.
Ahead of this match, England (73.7%) and France (71.3%) are heavy favourites to be the two sides that qualify for the knockout stage from Group D, with the Netherlands (45.7%) and Wales (9.3%) the outsiders.
France vs England Squads
France
Justine Lerond, Maëlle Lakrar, Thiniba Samoura, Alice Sombath, Élisa De Almeida, Sandie Toletti, Sakina Karchaoui, Grace Geyoro, Melvine Malard, Amel Majri, Kadidiatou Diani, Marie-Antoinette Katoto, Selma Bacha, Clara Mateo, Kelly Gago, Pauline Peyraud-Magnin, Sandy Baltimore, Oriane Jean-François, Griedge Mbock Bathy, Delphine Cascarino, Constance Picaud, Melween N’Dongala, Lou Bogaert.
Head Coach: Laurent Bonadei
England
Hannah Hampton, Lucy Bronze, Niamh Charles, Keira Walsh, Alex Greenwood, Leah Williamson, Lauren James, Georgia Stanway, Beth Mead, Ella Toone, Lauren Hemp, Maya Le Tissier, Anna Moorhouse, Grace Clinton, Esme Morgan, Jess Carter, Michelle Agyemang, Chloe Kelly, Aggie Beever-Jones, Jess Park, Khiara Keating, Lotte Wubben-Moy, Alessia Russo.
Head Coach: Sarina Wiegman
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France vs England Prediction: Women’s Euro 2025 Preview Opta Analyst.
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