US June ISM services index 50.8 vs 50.5 expected ...Middle East

Prior was 49.9Prices paid: 67.5 vs. 68.7 priorNew orders: 51.3 vs. 46.7 prior -Employment: 47.2 vs 50.7 prior - lowest since MarchBusiness activity: 54.2 vs. 50.0 priorSupplier deliveries: 50.3 vs. 52.5 priorInventories: 52.7 vs. 49.7 priorBacklog of orders: 42.4 vs. 43.4 priorNew export orders: 51.1 vs. 48.5 priorImports: 51.7 vs. 48.2 priorInventory sentiment: 57.1 vs. 62.9 prior

The employment report adds to the puzzle around the real jobs situation in the US as this matches the softness in the ADP report but goes against the stronger non-farm payrolls data. The ISM employment number has only been in positive territory once since February.

Comments in the report:

“Restaurant sales and traffic remain flat to prior year. Staffing is adequate for our current needs, and no supply chain concerns this month.” [Accommodation & Food Services]“Increased cost from tariffs and the potential for tariffs is impacting cost increases. Higher cost of high-dollar items like 150-horsepower farm tractors are forcing farmers to delay purchasing or purchase used equipment. Tension in the Middle East is creating great concern and uncertainty.” [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]“Sales remain stubbornly slow due to affordability issues with higher mortgage rates and high property values. Residential construction has embarked on cost-cutting measures through value engineering, supplier margin reductions and layoffs.” [Construction]“Prices have gone up from tariff recovery fees — separate line items — but the supply chain, deliveries and inventories have remained mostly stable after the initial disruption. Costs continue to increase across the board, so our goal is to mitigate that.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]“General uncertainty around the economy continues to drive increases in prices. Also, lots of SaaS (software-as-a-service) vendors are using the AI (artificial intelligence) boom to restructure pricing and products, resulting in massive increases.” [Information]“After several slow months, business is starting to increase. New requests are going out to suppliers.” [Other Services]“Confidence in a predictable economic environment has eroded to a point where capital investments are being severely curtailed.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]“Business growth is slow. Global economic conditions impacted by U.S. tariffs are creating significant uncertainty, which is holding businesses back from making short- to medium-term business decisions.” [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing]“Lead times are extending in the past month or two. Seeing high-single- or low-double-digit percent increases in pricing on metals related to commodity hardware and products.” [Utilities]“Business seems to be picking up. Many of the macroeconomic factors that were concerning look to be playing out in our favor. High interest rates are still a problem. Supplies are ample for current business levels.” [Wholesale Trade] This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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