Bitcoin has been on a great run since last Monday after the dovish Fed's Bowman comments and the end of the Israel-Iran conflict. The cryptocurrency continues to be supported by positive growth and liquidity drivers with financial conditions easing steadily. The path of least resistance remains to the upside given the expansionary fiscal policies and impending rate cuts.
In the short-term, the only risk I can see is a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations which could provide a pullback. But given that the Fed's reaction function remains to either wait more or cut, the market should eventually get back to its upward trend.
We have key catalysts in the next two weeks including the ISM PMIs, the US NFP and the US CPI. The data will influence interest rates expectations and therefore bitcoin's price action. To keep the trend going, we would need soft inflation figures and benign labour market data. Since the market is now leaning more towards three cuts by year-end, hawkish data would see that being repriced to two cuts.
On the daily chart, we can see that we reached the upper bound of the bullish flag. For the buyers, if we get a breakout the target is generally a projection of the flag "pole" which in this case would be the rally since April 9 tariff pause. This would put the target around the $135,000 level, but a more conservative $125,000 would have higher probabilities. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around these levels to position for a drop back into the lower bound of the flag.
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the bullish momentum waned a bit as we got near the upper bound of the flag. We have a key support zone around the $107,000 ish level where the buyers continue to pile in with a defined risk below the support to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the lower bound of the flag around the $100,000 level.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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