Look ahead to the second last-16 tie at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup with our Benfica vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Benfica vs Chelsea Stats: The Key Insights
Chelsea are favourites to progress from this tie, winning inside 90 minutes in 45.1% of the latest 10,000 simulations. Benfica haven’t beaten English opposition since March 2014. Chelsea have won all of their previous meetings with Benfica in all competitions.Benfica upset the odds somewhat to top Group C at the Club World Cup ahead of Bayern Munich – their reward? A last-16 date with Chelsea.
The theory is that topping your group earns you a more straightforward draw in the first knockout round, but instead of meeting Flamengo in a tie they’d have likely been favourites for, they’ll be the outsiders against Enzo Maresca’s side at the Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.
Of course, Benfica will fancy their chances of causing something of an upset, just as they did on Tuesday when battling to a resilient 1-0 win over Bayern in the same stadium.
Their record against English opposition is poor, though. They last beat Premier League opposition in March 2014 when earning a 3-1 win over Tottenham, going winless in seven such games since (D3 L4).
And although Chelsea did lose to Flamengo in the group stage, hence their progress as section runners-up, the Blues are generally on a good run of form.
Since enduring a run of just three wins in 12 games between 22nd December and 22nd February (D3 L6), Chelsea have won 16 of 22 in all competitions (D2 L4), scoring 38 goals and keeping 12 clean sheets.
And, for what it’s worth, Chelsea haven’t ever lost to Benfica. They beat them home and away in the 2011-12 UEFA Champions League quarter-finals, before also winning 2-1 in the 2013 UEFA Europa League final. Granted, all three were quite a long time ago.
Nevertheless, Benfica can point to a decent record at this stage in international competitions over the past 15 years. When they’ve reached the last-16 stage, they’ve progressed from 10 of their 12 ties – though one of those eliminations was earlier this year in the Champions League (4-1 to Barcelona on aggregate).
If Benfica are to spring a surprise again, they’ll probably require another warrior’s display from centre-back Nicolás Otamendi.
The Argentinian veteran has been an imperious presence at the back for the Portuguese Primeira Liga runners-up in this tournament. His 29 duels won was the most of any player in Group C, while his 80.6% success rate (29/36) in duels is the highest of any player in the competition to contest at least 18.
Another Argentinian could be key for Chelsea. Former Benfica star Enzo Fernández set up two goals in Chelsea’s 3-0 win over Espérance, taking him to 16 assists under Maresca, more than any of his teammates.
Benfica vs Chelsea Prediction
The Opta supercomputer considers Chelsea the likelier winner in this tie, with the Blues victorious inside 90 minutes in 45.1% of the latest 10,000 simulations.
Benfica won in regulation time in 29.1% of the sims, while 25.7% required extra-time – and potentially penalties.
When extra-time and penalties are taken into consideration, Chelsea went through 58.7% of the time in total. Benfica’s probability of reaching the quarter-finals is 41.3%.
Benfica vs Chelsea Squads
BenficaAnatoliy Trubin, Álvaro Carreras, António Silva, Fredrik Aursnes, Orkun Kökçü, Ángel Di María, Vangelis Pavlidis, Kerem Aktürkoğlu, Leandro Barreiro, Andrea Belotti, Andreas Schjelderup, Gianluca Prestianni, Samuel Dahl, Bruma, Nicolás Otamendi, Tiago Gouveia, Diogo Ferreira, Rui Silva, Florentino Luís, Gonçalo Oliveira, Joshua Wynder, João Veloso, Leandro Santos, André Gomes, Adrian Bajrami, Rafael Luís, João Rego, Renato Sanches, Diogo Prioste, Eduardo Fernandes
Head Coach: Bruno Lage
ChelseaRobert Sánchez, Marc Cucurella, Tosin Adarabioyo, Benoît Badiashile, Levi Colwill, Pedro Neto, Enzo Fernández, Liam Delap, Cole Palmer, Noni Madueke, Filip Jörgensen, Dário Essugo, Nicolas Jackson, Andrey Santos, Christopher Nkunku, Mamadou Sarr, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Trevoh Chalobah, Reece James, Moisés Caicedo, Malo Gusto, Aarón Anselmino, Tyrique George, Josh Acheampong, Marc Guiu, Mike Penders, Gabriel Slonina, Roméo Lavia.
Head Coach: Enzo Maresca
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.
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Benfica vs Chelsea Prediction: 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Last 16 Preview Opta Analyst.
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