Donald Trump’s weekend airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities failed to destroy two of the intended targets and may have delayed the country’s nuclear progress by only a few months, a preliminary classified intelligence report has found.
The analysis, prepared by the Defence Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence branch, determined that critical elements of Iran’s nuclear programme, including centrifuges, could be brought back online within a relatively short timeframe, according to several individuals familiar with the report.
Additionally, the intelligence assessed that a significant portion of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which could be utilised in the development of a nuclear weapon, had been relocated ahead of the strikes. It is believed that this material may now be stored at undisclosed nuclear facilities within the country.
The DIA’s conclusions, which are based on an initial battle damage assessment carried out by US Central Command — the military authority responsible for operations in the Middle East — indicate that Trump’s public statements claiming that the facilities had been “obliterated” may have exaggerated the extent of the damage.
Damage at the Iranian Fordo enrichment facility following the US strikes on 23 June (Photo: Maxar Technologies/AP)The assessment prompted Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to slam the leak of classified intelligence, calling the sources “treasonous” in an interview with Fox News on Tuesday.
“It goes without saying that the leaking of that sort of information, whatever the information, whatever site it goes out on, is outrageous, it is treasonous,” he said.
“So it ought to be investigated and whoever did it, whoever is responsible for it should be held accountable.”
In a televised address on Saturday night following the operation, Trump claimed that US forces had entirely wiped out Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities located at Natanz and Fordow — the latter being a site deeply embedded underground — as well as at Isfahan, where enriched material had been stored.
“The strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace,” Trump said in his address from the White House.
Media reports about the DIA assessment appeared to enrage Trump, who accused news organisations on Tuesday evening of downplaying the military strike by suggesting it had merely delayed Iran’s nuclear programme by a few months.
“THE NUCLEAR SITES IN IRAN ARE COMPLETELY DESTROYED!” Trump wrote in capital letters on his Truth Social platform.
Donald Trump addresses the nation, alongside US Vice President JD Vance, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth from the White House following the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (Photo: Carlos Barria /AFP)However, speaking exclusively with CNN, two individuals familiar with the assessment stated that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile had not been destroyed. One of the sources noted that most of the centrifuges remained “intact,” while another said intelligence indicated the enriched uranium was relocated from the targeted facilities before the US strikes took place.
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“So the assessment is that the US set [Iran] back maybe a few months, tops,” one of the sources said.
Trump dismissed the report as “fake news”, while Witkoff said the claims were “completely preposterous.”
“There is no doubt that Iran’s nuclear capability was obliterated,” Witkoff said. “So any reporting suggesting we didn’t accomplish the mission is just completely preposterous.”
Trump admitted during a Nato summit on Wednesday that the intelligence following the strikes was “very inconclusive”. He added: “The intelligence says we don’t know” but that “it could’ve been very severe. That’s what the intelligence suggests.”
“It was very severe. There was obliteration,” he added.
Uranium ‘completely’ destroyed vs missing
One of the biggest questions that has emerged following the US operation is how much nuclear material Iran was able to preserve, and where it may be hiding it now.
Even his own Vice President, JD Vance, admitted on Sunday that the administration did not know where Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium was.
“We are going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel,” Vance said.
The US has conducted airstrikes on three nuclear sites in Iran but despite claims that the mission was successful, there are questions about the extent of the damage (Photo: Murat Usubali/Anadolu/Getty Images)Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said on Monday that the agency could no longer track or verify the whereabouts of Iran’s 400kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity.
Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium represents a significant advancement toward weapons-grade material, which is typically enriched to around 90 per cent.
At this level of enrichment, the uranium is much closer to being suitable for use in a nuclear weapon compared with lower enrichment levels used for civilian energy purposes.
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Responding to questions about Trump’s claims of decisive victory in the operation that appeared to contradict the initial intelligence assessment, the White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the revelation about the content of the alleged assessment was “fake news” and that it was leaked by an “anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community”.
She maintained that the operation was a complete success and dismissed any suggestion of limited damage as politically motivated spin.
“The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear programme,” she said.
“Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.”
However, back in January, the Pentagon’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency gave a briefing to political appointees at the Pentagon suggesting that the GBU-57 bunker busters would not penetrate deep enough underground and that only a tactical nuclear weapon would destroy Fordo, according to reports.
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