WASHINGTON: A preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment has determined that U.S. strikes over the weekend on Iranian nuclear facilities have set back Tehran’s program by only a matter of months, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
The initial report was prepared by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s main intelligence arm and one of 18 U.S. intelligence agencies, said two of the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss classified matters.
The classified assessment is at odds with the statements of President Donald Trump and high-ranking U.S. officials - including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. They have said the weekend strikes, which used a combination of bunker-busting bombs and more conventional weapons, essentially eliminated Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump’s administration on Tuesday told the U.N Security Council that its weekend strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities had “degraded” Iran’s nuclear program, short of Trump’s earlier assertion that the facilities had been “obliterated.”
Asked for comment, the White House pointed to a statement by White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt to CNN, which first reported the assessment, that the “alleged” conclusion was “flat-out wrong.”
“Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000 pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration,“ she said.
Trump has said the attacks were necessary to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Iran denies it is seeking such a weapon and says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.
Hegseth on Sunday said that the strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear ambitions, while Trump said Iran’s crucial nuclear sites had been “completely and fully obliterated.”
Assessing the damage at the Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites is expected to be a difficult task, and the DIA is not the only agency tasked with the job. One source said the assessment was not universally accepted and had generated significant disagreement.
A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. did not know the extent of the damage yet.
Still, the initial assessment indicated the strikes may not have been nearly as successful as the Trump administration has claimed.
One of the sources said Iran’s enriched uranium stocks had not been eliminated, and in fact the country’s nuclear program may have been set back only a month or two.
The Pentagon disputed the notion that the damage to Iran’s nuclear program was minor, though it did not dispute that the DIA assessment exists.
“Based on everything we have seen — and I’ve seen it all — our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons,“ Hegseth said in a statement provided to Reuters.
“Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target—and worked perfectly. The impact of those bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran; so anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the President and the successful mission.”
Initial military assessments can change as more information comes to light and it is not uncommon for opinions to vary across different U.S. intelligence agencies.
Democrats have previously said Trump’s claims that the weekend strikes eliminated or seriously set back Iran’s nuclear program were not yet backed by evidence.
“There’s zero evidence that I’ve seen that the nuclear program was completely and totally obliterated as Donald Trump has claimed,“ House of Representatives Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said on Monday.
Classified briefings on the matter for members of the House of Representatives and Senate were canceled on Tuesday.
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