Labour will try to use spending on roads and net-zero projects to count towards a new Nato target to spend 5 per of the UK’s income on “national security”, it has emerged.
Sir Keir Starmer has signed up to a Nato commitment to dedicate 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product on “core defence” and a further 1.5 per cent on “resilience and security” covering “wider homeland security and national resilience”.
As first revealed by The i Paper last week, the UK is expecting a deadline of 2035 to hit the target.
The pledge – which is due to be ratified at the Nato’s summit in The Hague on Tuesday and Wednesday – is aimed at placating Donald Trump, who has repeatedly demanded that members of the alliance spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence.
Announcing the UK’s commitment, Sir Keir Starmer said: “We must navigate this era of radical uncertainty with agility, speed and a clear-eyed sense of the national interest to deliver security for working people and keep them safe.”
He added that the security strategy would create jobs and drive growth.
However, the 1.5 per cent non-core component has raised concerns that members including the UK could try to hit it by stretching the definition of what counts as “resilience” spending.
Details announcing the target released by Downing Street said the UK “had long argued that investment in things like energy security and tackling smuggling gangs is vital to national security”.
Asked what would count towards the 1.5 per cent on Monday, the Prime Minister’s spokesman said: “That’s for Nato to set out in due course. We clearly welcome Nato’s push to go further on national resilience and critical national infrastructure… we must take a whole of government and society approach.”
When asked by The i Paper whether spending on border security and net-zero projects could count towards the figure, the spokesman did not rule it out.
Some of the spending is expected to be focused on roads and rail, with Nato insiders stressing that mobility – the ability of troops and equipment to move to the battlefield or between allies – is a significant hurdle for the alliance.
It is understood that the Government will have to begin reporting to Nato on the mix of its spending by May next year.
Ed Arnold, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, said that the 5 per cent figure was “largely smoke and mirrors”. He added: “While there has always been creative accounting, getting to the new targets will require other security spending to be included.
“From a UK perspective, it is likely that more security spending from the Home Office, Net Zero projects and healthcare will have to be included in the 1.5 per cent.”
Big increase in UK plans
No 10 said that it expected to reach at least 4.1 per cent of GDP by 2027. Starmer has committed to spend 2.6 per cent on core defence by that year, meaning the Government believes it will already be spending 1.5 per cent on the wider security elements by that date.
The target to spend 3.5 per cent on core defence by 2035 marks a major increase on the UK’s existing plans, with Starmer previously only outlining an “ambition” to hit 3 per cent in the next parliament, without setting out detail on how to achieve it.
Arnold said that the “biggest challenge” for the Government would be “getting to 3.5 per cent by 2035 when the Chancellor [Rachel Reeves] stated just last week that it will stay at 2.6 per cent this Parliament”.
Downing Street has said that Nato allies will “review the trajectory and the balance of spend between defence and wider national resilience in 2029”.
With Trump due to have left office by that year, Nato members appear to have left the door open to watering down the spending target once the US President has departed the scene.
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The Atlantic Council think tank said that the “most logical reason” why allies had settled on 5 per cent was because Trump “demanded it”, with fears of the US abandoning Nato running “deep” among members.
In a blog post, the think tank said: “Are allies really prepared to spend the equivalent of 5 percent of their GDP on defence? Of course not.
“The only viable way to reach 5 percent defence spending is to redefine ‘defence spending’.”
“Although this rhetorical sleight of hand may enable allies to reach the magic number, it also carries significant risk insofar as allies may seek to count any number of questionable budgetary expenditures as ‘defence-related’.”
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