Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatened “irreparable damage” to America should it decide to join Israel’s air campaign. Now Donald Trump has done precisely that attention turns to see if and how Tehran will act on Khamenei’s words.
Washington has an extensive military presence in the Middle East with about 40 bases and installations stretching from Turkey to Oman and from Saudi Arabia to Iraq. In total there are some 40,000 US personnel in the region.
When American embassies, business interests and citizens are added to the equation the result is a wide array of locations and individuals who could find themselves targets.
Tehran faces a test of its resolve amid evidence that its ability to strike back may yet prove limited and be fraught with risk of provoking further strikes that may imperil the regime itself.
Burcu Ozcelik, an expert in Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think-tank, said: “Now that the [American] strikes have come, Tehran faces a stark dilemma: retaliate and risk a wider war, or pause to consolidate at home.”
The Pentagon has spent decades on projecting American military muscle in the Middle East, and much of that effort has been aimed at containing its main regional foe in the shape of Iran.
The result is a network of at least 36 air bases, naval facilities and army or special forces installations in nine countries designed to allow Washington to counter Iranian threats ranging from closing the Strait of Hormuz, the bottleneck in the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of world’s oil passes, to using its proxy militias.
At the core of this presence is American air power.
The Pentagon’s main base in the Gulf is the Al Udeid facility in Qatar – a sprawling US Air Force hub which hosts 10,000 personnel and has cost $5bn since it was opened in 1996. It has two 12,000ft runways and is shared with the Qatari air force and other allies, including the UK.
The USAF also has important bases at Al Dhafra in the United Arab Emirates, where it stations the F-22 Raptor fighter, as well as Al-Asad in Iraq, Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia and Incirlik in Turkey, which hosts an arsenal of some 50 tactical nuclear bombs.
The main American navy base in the region is the Naval Support Activity (NSA) hub in Manama, Bahrain, which hosts 9,000 personnel from the US Fifth Fleet and oversees an area from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.
It is the force tasked with keeping the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels at bay as they attempt to harass shipping passing through the Red Sea.
The US Army has a number of bases in the region, many of which are much smaller than installations used by the navy and air force. These smaller facilities – chiefly in Iraq, Syria and Jordan – host soldiers used for the international operation against the Islamic State terror group in Iraq and Syria.
Which are the most likely targets for Iran?
In 2020, the Islamic Republic attacked two US bases in Iraq – the Al-Asad air base and Al Harir base in Erbil – in retaliation for the assassination in Iraq of General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The fusillade of 13 ballistic missiles failed to kill any of the 2,500 American soldiers on the bases, although more than 100 were later diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries.
The proximity of these two bases to Iran, which according to US sources can be reached within less than 15 minutes after launch of a ballistic missile, make them among the most likely targets for a reprisal attack.
square NEWS UK cost of groceries and fuel set to rise after US bunker buster air strike
Read More
Pentagon planners have hitherto assumed its major base in Qatar, the Al Udeid air hub, would be more likely to be exempted for attack by Tehran because of the gas-rich state’s status as a regional intermediary.
Qatar has acted as a broker in peace talks between Israel and Hamas, the Iran-backed militia which runs Gaza. Al Udeid is also used as a major base for Qatar’s own air force as well as hosting contingents from major allies, including the UK.
However, satellite images released last week showed that the Pentagon had removed dozens of military aircraft which had been parked at Al Udeid. The move was interpreted as a sign that Washington believes Tehran may now be willing to strike at Qatar and neighbouring UAE to inflict blows on the US.
Smaller American bases in Syria, Jordan and Iraq may also be vulnerable to attacks using drones and other munitions fired by Iran-backed proxies. On 14 and 15 June – within 48 hours of the start of Israel’s attack on Iran – three US installations in Syria were reportedly attacked. In January last year, three American personnel were killed and 47 injured in a drone attack on Tower 22 – a US forward operating base in north Jordan.
Iran operates a fleet of fast torpedo boats that could endanger vessels entering the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran is known to have been practicing “swarm” techniques involving the use of drones and fast boats to try to overwhelm the defences of larger ships.
On one level, it would be of little surprise were Iran to launch some form of assault on US forces or installations in the region or beyond.
Failure to do so would mean a loss of face and credibility for a regime which prides itself on its record of brinkmanship with the West.
But it has already seen its once-fearsome proxy militias of Hezbollah and Hamas vastly weakened by Israeli’s offensives since the 7 October massacres.
Nearly 50 years after it was founded in the Islamic Revolution, Iran’s theocracy is probably at the most exposed point in its history. Any move to widen the conflict would have to be balanced against the threat posed by growing internal dissent.
Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at RUSI, said: “If the Iranians choose a broader military response against US forces, there are targets across the Middle East, especially in Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, but all would risk widening the conflict at a time of extreme vulnerability for the Iranian regime.”
Read Next
square AMERICA AnalysisRead More
In this context, experts say it is not impossible that the regime will decide to prioritise maintaining its grip on power rather than embark on a conflict with the mightiest military on the planet.
As one Western diplomatic source put it: “The Iranians have a long history of what they call drinking a cup of poison in order to ensure survival. It may well be that they’re preparing to drink that poison once more to live to fight another day.”
Even if it does decide to strike against America, Tehran is likely to face a number of practical difficulties.
Prior to Israel’s strikes, Iran had amassed an arsenal of some 2,000 missiles of varying ranges and capabilities – ranging from Soviet-era Scud missiles to modern ballistic weapons.
However, Israeli strikes and Iran’s own counteroffensive against the Jewish state are estimated to have reduced that stock by as much as half.
Iran is also thought to have suffered many losses of the mobile missile launchers it needs to make attacks.
Notwithstanding such constraints, Tehran is likely to find other means of attack should it decide Sunday’s American assault cannot go unanswered. It has long proved itself adept at proxy attacks via terror groups and asymmetrical tactics such as cyber operations.
As a case in point, the Houthi movement in Yemen on Sunday declared a month-long ceasefire in the Red Sea to be at an end and vowed to attack American naval forces in revenge for the US attack on Iran.
What about non-military targets?
From building contractors to fast-food outlets, American businesses are heavily invested in the Middle East – and so could provide alternative targets for Iranian fury.
Brands ranging from Microsoft to Coca-Cola, and ExxonMobil to Starbucks have considerable operations in countries including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
When Trump last month unveiled a $600bn (£445bn) investment deal with Saudi Arabia, it included contracts with US companies to build a showpiece new airport in Riyadh and additional deals to sell military equipment and training.
According to one estimate, there are also 300,000 American citizens living in the Middle East and North Africa, including 80,000 in Saudi Arabia alone.
The Western diplomat said: “It has to be remembered that for any country with a presence in the Middle East, it is not just military assets that are at risk. There is also a soft underbelly of commercial interests and people getting on with their lives.”
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( The 36 US bases on the frontline of Iranian retribution )
Also on site :
- Starmer will slash firms’ energy bills amid warnings net zero costs are crippling British industry
- Diamondbacks Sign James McCann
- Judge orders Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s release from jail before trial, but ICE plans to detain him