NBA Finals Game 7 Predictions: How the Underdog Pacers Have Taken the Thunder to the Brink ...Middle East

Indiana’s Game 6 blowout of the OKC Thunder set up an exciting Game 7 and proved the Pacers are different than underdogs that came before them.

The start of the NBA playoffs is a time of hope for every team that makes it there.

Almost every championship is won by a team that was among the best in the regular season, but that doesn’t stop fans of teams that finished a few games over .500 from thinking their favorite team is the exception. They’re different because they’re better than their record or point differential. They’ll prove everyone wrong.

Then, the playoffs start and reality kicks in. One of the best regular-season teams emerges from the pack. There will be some unpredictable results, but ultimately, order will reign. The NBA is where Cinderella stories go to die.

Until this year.

The Indiana Pacers are one win away from turning a fun, unexpected playoff run into something much more: The franchise’s first NBA title.

No matter what happens against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 7, the Pacers have proved they belong in a series that started with them as enormous underdogs. But one more win, and they get to rewrite the history books and make everyone re-evaluate what is possible in the NBA.

Simply put, the Pacers are different.

Hot at the Right Time

Teams with the Pacers’ regular-season statistics don’t win the title.

The Pacers had a 50-32 (.610) record, which would mark the fourth-worst winning percentage for an NBA champion since the NBA-ABA merger. Their regular-season point differential per game was plus-2.2, which would be the third worst for a champion since the merger.

The New York Knicks knocked out the defending champion Boston Celtics, but the Pacers still had to play the Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18 with a +9.5-point differential per game) and the Thunder (68-14, NBA-record +12.9-point differential per game). Despite playing in what’s considered the lesser conference (Eastern), the Pacers did not have an easy road to the title.

But the Pacers have been a different team for several months now. After starting the season 10-15 with a minus-3.6-point differential per game, they’ve gone 55-24 with a +4.7-point differential per game since Dec. 13. That’s almost a full 82-games worth of data that reflect the Pacers are substantially better and includes four rounds of playoffs, where the schedule is much tougher than the average stretch of regular season games.

A lot of teams get hot in the month leading up to the playoffs only to fall back down to earth. It’s hard to trust a good stretch in a small sample because there are so many variables. It could be a stretch of easy games (especially at the end of the season when several NBA Lottery teams have deprioritized winning) or a run of unsustainable shooting.

But when a team shows significant improvement over several months, perhaps they need to be taken more seriously.

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Still, it’s not like the Pacers started playing at an undeniably great level heading into the playoffs. Their record since Dec. 13 is third-best in the league, but still over 100 percentage points worse than the Thunder. Their offensive rating is fifth and their defensive rating is eighth over that time frame, but the Thunder have been better on both sides of the ball.

Even if the season started on Dec. 13, they would’ve been seen by most analysts as significant underdogs heading into the Finals. And if another team with the Pacers’ profile makes the Finals and comes close to winning next year, it might be time to evaluate if elite regular-season results are a prerequisite for a championship contender.

For now, it’s probably better to take the Pacers as the exception that proves the rule.

No Fluke

When a team that’s a heavy underdog wins or competes in a series unexpectedly, there can be a tendency to look toward the lucky breaks it got. The favorite’s wins are seen as expected, so any luck they have is dismissed as what “should have” happened.

It’s easy to look at the Pacers’ dramatic comeback in Game 1 or the Thunder’s abysmal offensive performance in the fourth quarter of Game 3 and think the series could be over already if the Thunder played up to their potential.

But that thought process omits the Thunder’s need for a huge comeback in Game 4 or that the clutch comeback by the Pacers in Game 1 was mere happenstance and not something they’ve done in every series so far with Tyrese Haliburton leading the way.

The stats for the series are strikingly similar on both sides and don’t tell the tale of a series that should be over by now.

The Last Challenge

Regardless of how Game 7 goes, this has not been a one-sided series elongated by a few moments. It’s been a battle between one of the best teams of the last decade and a team that has risen to the challenge and played like the Thunder’s equal through six games.

With all of that said, there are no morale victories in the NBA Finals. Maybe the Pacers use this season as a springboard to more championship opportunities in the coming years.

Or maybe this is by far their best opportunity. The new luxury tax rules make it harder for teams to sustain success and there are several examples of talented teams that seemed destined to make several Finals runs after their first appearance and never got back. Just ask the Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook Thunder.

This year’s Pacers will be remembered in Indiana for years to come, but if they want to be remembered as the team that brought the city its first NBA title, they have to beat the Thunder in Oklahoma City.

The Thunder went 35-6 at home in the regular season, which is tied for the third-best home record in the past five years. They’ve also gone 10-2 in the playoffs at home and have dramatically better numbers there.

It’s not breaking news that a team is better at home, but the degree to which the Thunder have performed differently at home in the playoffs can’t be overstated. All nine Thunder players who have played at least 200 minutes in the playoffs have averaged fewer points and shot worse from both the field and 3-point range on the road compared to at home (except Isaiah Hartenstein, who hasn’t attempted a 3).

The Thunder are one of the youngest Finals teams ever, so perhaps they’re more prone to slumps on the road. Whatever the reason, it’s not something they have to worry about in Game 7.

They’ve shown resiliency all postseason and need to do so once more. After losing by double figures to the Denver Nuggets in Game 6 of the second round, the Thunder bounced back and blew them out 125-93 at home in Game 7. When their backs have been against the wall, their elite defense has been at its best, as has the league’s MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The Western Conference champs need to get SGA going after his worst game of the Finals. The Pacers played their best pick-and-roll defense of the series in Game 6, perhaps because they stopped pressing full court as often and were just aggressive at the point of attack instead.

Coach Mark Daigneault adjusted to this toward the end of the game by getting Gilgeous-Alexander off the ball more frequently, getting him touches where he could make a quick move and get a shot up. The Canadian point guard had success with this, but it’ll be interesting to see how much they go to it in Game 7. With one game left to decide the championship, do the Thunder really want to have the ball in the MVP’s hands less often?

The Pacers have looked like the deeper team in the Finals, with eight players averaging at least 10 points per game. The Thunder have been more top-heavy, with only four players averaging 10 points but Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams combining for 54.7 per game.

While the Pacers have more options to go to, the Thunder have the stabilizing force of two superstar bucket-getters to lean on if the game gets ugly (as Game 7s often do). Perhaps one of Oklahoma City’s many bench options gets hot from 3 at home to complement the two stars. With their dominance at home all season, the Thunder have to be seen as the favorite – and our projection model gives them a 79.7% probability of winning (as of Friday).

But if there’s one certainty in an unknowable Game 7, it’s that the Pacers won’t mind being the underdog one more time. Because they’re a different kind of underdog than any we’ve seen recently.

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NBA Finals Game 7 Predictions: How the Underdog Pacers Have Taken the Thunder to the Brink Opta Analyst.

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