SANTA BARBARA, Calif.- Ocean temperatures and atmospheric interactions influence weather patterns by a climate cycle called El-Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO. This cycle swings between three phases: El Nino, La Niña and Neutral.
Currently, we are in the neutral phase, where water temperatures are near normal and light trade winds keep the atmosphere stable. Think of this pattern as an atmospheric reset that often lasts a few months. While it's typically viewed as a break between two phases, weather patterns can still be quite active.
Moving into summer months we transition into La Niña or the cool and dry phase. During this pattern, stronger winds push warm surface waters westward allowing for cooler waters to rise up. Tracking the La Niña phase can be useful when assessing fire season risk.
Eventually, we will fall back into El Niño or the warm ands wet phase. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures typically bring wetter conditions, and strong storms. This phase is important to monitor when looking at rising sea levels and coastal erosion.
Monitoring these transitions help meteorologists plan for what's ahead and issue early warnings.
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