Surging Southern California rent inflation, while national price hikes decline, suggests January’s Los Angeles wildfires may be costing local tenants.
My trusty spreadsheet looked at rent costs as tracked by three local Consumer Price Indexes – Los Angeles and Orange counties, the Inland Empire and San Diego County – and compared that to nationwide patterns. The CPI follows rents by surveying tenants to learn what they are paying for all types of housing of varying sizes. Other rent metrics typically track what major landlords are charging tenants for new leases at large apartment complexes.
Locally, May’s 5.1% average rent hike across Southern California was well above December’s 3.8% – 2024’s low. Meanwhile, tenants across the nation saw 3.8% rent inflation in May – the lowest rate since December 2021..
Ponder the sharply turning gap between local and national rents. In May, Southern California’s rent inflation was 1.3 percentage points faster than the U.S. – the most extensive spread since February 2019.
Yet national rent inflation was outpacing the local average as recently as December. That’s just before firestorms destroyed 12,000-plus structures around Altadena and Pacific Palisades. Hard to ignore such a twist.
Oddly, rent inflation in the L.A.-O.C. metro area – where the fires occurred – has been flat in early 2025. Rents rose 4.5% in the year ended May, the same pace as 2024’s low in November.
Perhaps demand for rentals may have moved inland and south. Inland Empire rent inflation was 5.1% in May, far faster than 2024’s low of 2.4% in October. And San Diego’s 5.8% rate in May was up from 2024’s bottom at 4.3% in December.
Look, wildfires are likely not the only reason for this rent-hike gap. For example, an apartment construction rush outside of Southern California has forced many U.S. landlords to offer discounts to fill up the newly created supply of rentals.
Plus, Southern California wages, as measured by one federal index, rose 4.4% in the year ended in March vs. 3.4% nationally. Significant raises can put upward pressure on housing costs.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
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