Newcastle United‘s “imminent” decision over the future of St James’ Park will push their valuation past the £1bn mark as a new report claims they’re among the fastest growing clubs in world football.
These are strange times at Newcastle, who desperately need to strengthen their squad ahead of a return to Champions League football next season.
Business is expected to “ramp up” next week – a move for Brighton forward Joao Pedro is “advancing”, sources suggest, with Newcastle in pole position ahead of Chelsea – but there remains uncertainty over the club’s future direction with CEO Darren Eales and director of football Paul Mitchell both heading for the exit door.
The i Paper understands efforts to appoint Mitchell’s successor have been expedited but under majority owners the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) decisions on executive appointments are rarely swift.
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Set against this unease on Tyneside, though, is a bigger picture of the club’s growth and potential – largely tied to the upcoming stadium call.
Forbes’ list of the most valuable football clubs in the world currently puts Newcastle at 19th, with their worth estimated at £817m.
That is more than double the £350m that a consortium led by the PIF paid Mike Ashley to acquire the Magpies in 2021 and their valuation grew by 38 per cent last year, more than any other club in Europe.
Experts have told The i Paper there is potential for that value to “sky rocket” when PIF finally make a decision on the future of St James’ Park.
A new stadium that opens up fresh revenue streams would almost certainly guarantee they become the seventh club in the Premier League – after Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Chelsea – to soar past the £1bn mark, according to Forbes’ analyst Justin Teitelbaum.
The long-awaited decision on the future of the stadium – originally promised by “early 2025” – will be announced this year but hopes of hearing something by the end of this month, which was one internal target mentioned to The i Paper recently, now appear unduly optimistic.
Indeed, with PIF’s rigorous “process” around investment decisions still playing out there’s not even a guarantee a call will be communicated before the start of next season.
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Club sources insist that’s because a final, binding decision on what comes next has not yet been made, despite a number of leaks about the plans.
It’s understood that when an announcement is made it will be “comprehensive and detailed”, and much more advanced than the internal presentations made to club staff earlier this year.
Although a deep dive into redeveloping St James’ Park has been carried out a proposal to move to a new stadium at nearby Leazes Park is understood to be the preferred option of the club
The i Paper has been told a capacity “in excess” of 65,000 is now being looked at after PIF figures noted the huge numbers that celebrated the historic Carabao Cup win. But there is also ruthless business logic to building it as big as they can, with Newcastle still on an impressive off-the-field growth trajectory.
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“We’re keeping a close eye on Newcastle’s stadium decision and watching what’s going to happen,” Forbes analyst Teitelbaum says.
“Absolutely they could get to a £1bn valuation when you look at the way revenues have sky rocketed since the Saudi takeover. Our valuation works on a revenue multiple basis and club revenues have sky rocketed since they first featured in our list on 2023.
“They will move up the ladder with a stadium expansion which will allow them to increase match day revenues significantly and that is a key indicator of overall revenues.”
Improving the bottom line will also enable Newcastle to navigate the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) in future seasons.
While the club’s position is vastly improved – and ticking over into a new accounting year at the end of the month will help – they still need to “box clever” in recruitment terms.
What that means in practice is trying to negotiate more reasonable prices for top targets Pedro – rated at £60m by Brighton – and James Trafford, who is keen on a move to Newcastle but will not move for the £30m quoted by Burnley.
The word from inside the club is that there’s no panic. Transfers will happen and some of their targets are yet to emerge into the public domain. But with so much at stake a bit of urgency – on and off-the-field – might pay dividends.
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