Shafaq News/ A new report from the Stockholm International PeaceResearch Institute (SIPRI) has warned that global nuclear risks are risingsharply, with major powers expanding their arsenals and a new arms raceemerging amid the breakdown of international arms control frameworks.
In its 2025 Yearbook, SIPRI estimates that there are 12,241 nuclearwarheads worldwide as of January 2025, with 9,614 in active military stockpilesand approximately 2,100 on high operational alert—most of which belong to theUnited States and Russia.
According to SIPRI Director Dan Smith, the post–Cold War era ofnuclear arms reductions has effectively ended. “We are entering a period wherethe number of nuclear weapons in global arsenals is likely to increase,” Smithsaid, pointing to growing instability in arms control efforts and increasinggeopolitical mistrust.
The report notes that China is rapidly expanding its nucleararsenal, with projections indicating it could match the intercontinentalballistic missile capabilities of the United States or Russia by the early2030s. SIPRI estimates that China has been adding nearly 100 warheads annuallysince 2023.
SIPRI’s analysis also highlights the growing role of advancedtechnologies—including artificial intelligence, cyber warfare tools, missiledefense systems, and quantum computing—in altering the nuclear risk landscape.These developments, the report warns, may reduce decision-making times incrisis scenarios and increase the risk of miscalculation.
Regional Implications for the Middle East
Although not a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation ofNuclear Weapons (NPT), Israel is widely believed to possess an undeclarednuclear arsenal and is reportedly modernizing its long-range missile systemsand nuclear infrastructure. In the context of the current militaryconfrontation with Iran, SIPRI's findings raise renewed concerns over nucleardeterrence dynamics in the region.
The report’s release comes as Iran and Israel continue to exchangemissile and drone strikes, escalating fears that regional instability coulddeepen into a broader conflict involving weapons of mass destruction. Thecollapse of traditional arms control mechanisms, such as the New START Treaty,which is set to expire in 2026, further complicates the internationalcommunity’s ability to manage nuclear escalation.
SIPRI concludes its yearbook with a stark warning: “A dangerous newnuclear arms race is emerging,” driven by global power competition, weakeneddiplomatic channels, and a rapidly changing technological environment.
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