After five weeks of analysis, we’ve selected our starting lineup for the opening Test of this year’s Lions series against Australia. Using data to guide us, we’ve picked a starting XV with a balance of nations and clubs that we believe is primed for success Down Under.
Over the past five weeks, we’ve been selecting our starting lineup to face Australia in the opening Test of this year’s Lions series, using the stats of players selected in Andy Farrell’s squad in early May.
The process revealed several intriguing battles, and while there are many combinations that could form a formidable team, we reckon we’ve landed on the winning formula.
For the reasons why we’ve picked each player, check out each piece in our squad builder series:
Edition #1: Our Starting Back Three for the First TestEdition #2: Picking Our Starting Centres for the First TestEdition #3: Selecting the Half-Backs for the First TestEdition #4: Picking Our Second Row and Loose ForwardsEdition #5: Who Starts in the Front Row?
England lead the way with the most players in our starting XV, contributing six – four in the pack and two in the backs. Ireland follow with five players, while Scotland provide three, all in the backline. Wales supply just the one player in Jac Morgan.
The final lineup would have been even more competitive between England, Ireland, and Scotland had Zander Fagerson not been ruled out late due to injury. Fagerson was originally our pick for the No. 3 jersey, but Will Stuart ultimately took his place.
On a club level, there are more Leinster players (4) in our starting lineup than any other team, with Glasgow Warriors, Northampton Saints and Saracens all boasting two players each. Bath, Bristol, Munster, Ospreys and Toulouse players make up the remainder of our side.
Below is our full starting lineup for the opening Test against Australia, and in recognition of rugby’s evolution into a 23-man sport, we’ve also included our bench for good measure.
Replacements: 16. Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17. Andrew Porter, 18. Tadhg Furlong, 19. Joe McCarthy, 20. Tom Curry, 21. Alex Mitchell, 22. Finn Russell, 23. Elliot Daly
We’ve gone with a traditional 5-3 split on the bench, favouring a mix of impact and versatility. Players like Elliot Daly offer valuable cover across multiple back-line positions, while Tom Curry provides complete coverage across the back row.
That said, we wouldn’t be surprised if Andy Farrell opts for a 6-2 split instead. In that scenario, someone like Marcus Smith could become a more valuable utility option to cover the backs.
Alongside our squad builder series, we asked for your Lions selections through a series of polls on social media. For the most part, your choices aligned with ours, though there were a few notable differences – some of which we wouldn’t be surprised to see reflected in Farrell’s final squad on 19 July:
The Fans Starting XV:
Andrew Porter Dan Sheehan Will Stuart Maro Itoje Tadhg Beirne Tom Curry Josh van der Flier Ben Earl Jamison Gibson-Park Finn Russell James Lowe Sione Tuipulotu Huw Jones Tommy Freeman Blair KinghornCheck out our other Rugby Union content on Opta Analyst. You can also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook
Picking the Perfect Lions XV: Our Stat-Based Starting Lineup for the First Lions’ Test Against Australia Opta Analyst.
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