Why I have a conservative 2025 outlook for Georgia running back Nate Frazier ...Middle East

Last November, Sony Michel walked through the Georgia locker room leading up to a monumental showdown against Tennessee. He was a decade removed from when he earned his first career start at UGA as a true freshman in 2014. For the first time since he got the nod in the Belk Bowl, another Georgia true freshman running back was set to start. It was hardly the first time that Nate Frazier had been called on during his true freshman season, but being the true lead back for the first time — and doing so in a game that was loaded with Playoff implications — was a different beast.

Michel sensed that Frazier understood the magnitude of the moment and offered up some words of advice to the young back (via The Saturday Down South Podcast).

“Don’t be scared to score touchdowns. That’s all I’ll say.”

Frazier took those words to heart. He scored the dagger touchdown to put Tennessee away in what proved to be an all-important victory en route to UGA’s 7th trip to the SEC Championship Game in 8 years. Following a 3-touchdown showing against UMass, Frazier was the one who finally delivered the walk-off winner in an 8-overtime marathon victory against Georgia Tech.

With Trevor Etienne off to the NFL, Frazier is now set to get all the starts in Georgia’s backfield. After he scored 8 rushing touchdowns and ran for 671 yards — both of those were the most by a Georgia true freshman since Michel’s 2014 classmate Nick Chubb ran for 1,547 yards and 14 touchdowns — one might assume that the sky is the limit for Frazier.

Maybe I’m in the minority, but I’ll take the “under” on any lofty Frazier projections

Why? Am I just a hater?

Hardly, though UGA fans might’ve called me that when I only had Frazier as the No. 4 returning back in the SEC. After all, no returning SEC running back had more touchdowns than Frazier last year (that excludes transfers who did their damage outside of the conference). Plus, this is Georgia, who has as deep of a history at the position as anyone in the sport. Between Michel, Chubb, Todd Gurley and D’Andre Swift, the Dawgs have had no shortage of elite backs in the Playoff era alone.

But Swift is actually a key piece to the Frazier projection. He’s the last 1,000-yard back in the Kirby Smart era. That was in Swift’s pre-draft season in 2019. Of the 16 SEC teams, look at how many 1,000-yard backs each has had in the 2020s (that excludes quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels):

Isn’t that surprising company for a team like Georgia, which has played 14-15 games in 4 of the 5 seasons during the 2020s?

I know what you’re thinking, UGA fan. “It’s because they have so many great backs.” That sort of proves my point for a conservative projection, though. In the 2020s, UGA hasn’t had a back average 15 carries per game, and nobody hit 170 carries in a season. Swift never had a 200-carry season, either. Chubb and Michel were the only players to do that during the 9 years of the Smart era.

Could that change in Year 10? It’s possible, but I wouldn’t bank on it. I definitely would feel less optimistic about that possibility after Smart made a post-spring portal splash by adding Josh McCray from Illinois. McCray certainly wasn’t afraid to score touchdowns at Illinois last year. He had 10 of them (he also added another in the passing game) and averaged 5.2 yards/carry for a team that won 10 games. The 235-pound, 23-year-old veteran wasn’t brought in to watch Frazier get all the work.

Smart’s decision to poach a proven commodity like that in the post-spring window speaks to the new nature of the sport. Much like what we saw with Ohio State swinging for the fences to pair Quinshon Judkins with TreVeyon Henderson, there’s never been more of a need for championship contenders to manage their backfield rotations effectively. It’s one thing if a hot hand emerges down the stretch or in a key game, but a team that’s expecting to play 16-17 games has to take on a more conservative approach than it would’ve during the 4-team Playoff era.

Not to nitpick too much, but there are also areas where Frazier can improve

OK, now we can be a touch critical of Frazier’s developing game.

Among SEC running backs who got at least 50 carries, Frazier ranked No. 29 with an average of 2.81 yards after first contact. That’s necessarily not a bad number, especially for a true freshman in the SEC. But it was nearly a full yard less than Chubb’s 3.73 as a true freshman in 2014, and he forced an absurd 63 missed tackles on 219 carries compared to Frazier’s 21 missed tackles forced in 133 carries. When Swift was a true freshman operating behind Chubb and Michel in 2017, he was 5th in the SEC with an average of 4.37 yards after first contact (he wasn’t even the top SEC freshman in that department because Najee Harris averaged 4.59 yards after first contact that season).

That’s an important metric to track because Georgia’s offensive line might have more questions entering a season than it’s had since the beginning of the Smart era. Being able to get those tough yards will be crucial for Frazier.

Like many freshmen who are thrust into a lead back role, Frazier had some ball-security issues at times. He had 3 fumbles, 2 of which came against Ole Miss in a lopsided loss. That has to get cleaned up. Even if Georgia’s backfield isn’t stockpiled with backfield talent in the way that it was during the 2010s, there’s still not going to be much grace for ball-security issues.

And while Smart has shown more grace than others with backs who aren’t great in pass protection — see “Etienne, Trevor” — Frazier needs to show that he’s not a liability in the passing game. He had 2 drops on his 15 targets, and after that 24-yard catch he had on a swing pass in his loud debut against Clemson, he only totaled 61 receiving yards with just 2 catches of 10-plus yards the rest of the season.

Again, the vast majority of true freshmen running backs aren’t walking into the SEC as complete players. It wasn’t like Michel, Chubb or Gurley checked every passing game box, either.

But it’s another reason why we shouldn’t rush to assume that Frazier will become an every-down back who does things that we haven’t seen from the Georgia backfield in the 2020s.

So then what’s a realistic projection for Frazier?

Conservatively, Georgia can still accomplish everything it wants to if it gets 800-900 rushing yards and 8-10 touchdowns from Frazier. Obviously, that can’t be the only production from the UGA backfield en route to a title. McCray being a drive-finisher would be huge, as would Roderick Robinson staying healthy and Cash Jones being a contributor in the passing game.

Of course, it wouldn’t hurt if Frazier could become the dynamic, game-changing skill-player that Georgia lacked during a herky-jerky 2024 season. Perhaps it’s unfair to say that we know his ceiling on the heels of an impressive true freshman campaign. He flashed the top-end speed and power that made him the No. 2 running back in the 2024 class. There were moments when you could convince yourself that Frazier was doing a Gurley imitation, and not just because they both rocked No. 3 in red and black.

When Frazier scored his first career touchdown at Georgia last year, he gave a fitting salute to Gurley and Michel:

Nate Frazier paying homage to Gurley with the bow and Sony with the jazz hands is just ???? pic.twitter.com/JOcbRqU8GU

Frazier wouldn’t have come to Georgia unless he wanted to follow in the footsteps of those greats. Time will tell if he can leave a legacy like they did.

For now, I’ll admit it — I’m afraid to assume that’s what awaits in 2025.

Why I have a conservative 2025 outlook for Georgia running back Nate Frazier Saturday Down South.

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