The 2025 NBA Draft class has a superstar at the top and a lot of great players behind him. Here are the top prospects, according to our draft model.
The 2024 NBA Draft was a bit of a letdown.
Any draft was likely to feel underwhelming after Victor Wembanyama went first in 2023, but last year’s didn’t feature any obvious superstars near the top. There were some very good players, but the impact felt lighter than the average draft at the time – and still one year later.
Draft fans can rejoice this year, though, as the 2025 draft class is more interesting. It has the clear No. 1 player lacked last year, with Duke’s Cooper Flagg widely expected to go first overall due to his incredible overall skill set. There’s also quality depth in this draft, with potential great finds among the late lottery spots and even near the end of the first round.
With several players who warrant first-round consideration, it can be difficult to find the diamonds in the rough by watching every player enough to form educated opinions. That’s where draft models come in handy.
Our NBA Draft model is derived from an array of statistical inputs, consensus draft rankings and biographical/anthropometric information to determine where NCAA prospects stand. The model ranks only prospects who played in the NCAA last season, so international standouts such as Nolan Traore and Noa Essengue are not included.
Here are the model’s top 30 prospects, ranked by their projected overall DRIP at the end of Year 4 because rookie contracts for first-round picks are for four years. (Stats are from the 2024-25 college basketball season.)
Flagg’s Year-4 projection is the sixth-highest DRIP we’ve recorded since 2013, behind Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Haliburton, Jalen Suggs and Chet Holmgren.
And here are some of the key factors behind the rise/fall of the more surprising names across our rankings.
2. VJ Edgecombe, Baylor
Edgecombe is widely considered a top-five prospect in the draft, but Rutgers guard Dylan Harper is close to a consensus as the second-best player in the class.
Harper’s an excellent prospect who’s worthy of the second pick and the model can’t properly calibrate how he had to work his way back into form after an ankle injury sidelined him for multiple weeks during the 2024-25 season.
But it’s important to highlight why Edgecombe is a great prospect as well. He’s seen by some as a great defensive prospect due to his lateral athleticism and highlight-reel steals and blocks.
Interestingly enough, the model sees him as a fairly average defensive prospect. He’s a bit smaller than teams want in a primary wing stopper (6-foot-5) and could be overaggressive at times while seeking steals. He has a high ceiling as a guard stopper, but that’s not why the model loves him.
Instead, the model projects Edgecombe as the third-best offensive prospect in the draft.
The burst is what stands out for the Baylor guard. He has a quick first step and is an incredible leaper, both in terms of how high he can jump and how quickly he gets in the air. He won’t be able to rely on his athleticism to score as much in the NBA when he is facing top athletes every night, but that’s where the progression in his technique comes into play.
The game slowed down for Edgecombe as last season went on, and he improved as a scorer and passer off the dribble. He shot just 34.0% on 3-pointers, but his form was fine, and he shot 78.2% on free throws, which suggests he could be a good shooter in the pros.
There are still long stretches of games when he is invisible on offense, but when you factor in his athleticism and flashes of scoring and passable playmaking, he has a solid floor with an enticing ceiling as an offensive prospect.
3. Thomas Sorber, Georgetown
It’s not surprising to see Sorber ranked highly. The 6-10 center was highly productive and efficient in his lone year at Georgetown and ranked fourth among freshmen in VAPR, our catch-all stat that measures production on a rate basis in college basketball.
But to see the model project him as the third-best prospect is eye-opening. He likely won’t go nearly this high because a lot of his skills aren’t valued as highly in the draft, but he plays his role exceedingly well and could be a steal for whoever ends up taking him.
Sorber is a great pick-and-roll finisher. He sets good screens, has incredible hands and goes up strong every time he shoots. He’s not afraid of contact and has enough touch around the glass to give opponents a headache anytime he has the ball near the rim, and he’s shown quick processing when help comes on him in the post or pick-and-roll.
But defense will be his calling card in the pros if he ends up hitting his ceiling. The big man was incredibly impressive as a defender in his lone college season and projects as the best defender in this draft class. He was the only qualified player in NCAA Division I to average 2.0 blocks and 1.4 steals per game, which highlighted his excellent hands and quick reactions. There aren’t many freshmen who displayed his nuanced understanding of opposing offenses, either.
The big question is whether Sorber will have his athleticism exposed at the next level. He did a good enough job in pick-and-roll defense but sometimes struggled to contain quicker players when he has to be at the level of the screen.
If Sorber’s athleticism forces him to play almost exclusively drop coverage at the NBA level, he’ll be a defense-first center without a ton of versatility, which isn’t a highly coveted archetype. But if he can get just a bit quicker laterally, he’ll still be able to utilize his excellent hands and instincts to be a difference-maker on that end, which would allow him to live up to this lofty ranking.
5. Amari Williams, Kentucky
Sorber was a surprise as a top-five player, but he’s expected to go in the first round. There’s a chance Williams isn’t drafted at all, and if he is, it’ll likely be in the second round.
So what does the model love about his game? His passing and ability to get to the foul line – two skills that are often underrated when evaluating draft prospects.
The Kentucky big man had the sixth-most free throws attempted per 40 minutes among major conference players and he led D-I players 6-10 or taller in assists per 40 minutes. Put that combination together and Williams draws fouls when he gets the ball and is a playmaker when the defense tries to help.
He’s also a great rebounder, as evidenced by his averages of 19.1 points, 14.9 rebounds and 5.6 assists per 40 minutes last season (numbers that have the look of a top pick).
Of course, rate stats must be used to paint Williams in a bright light because he only played 22.8 minutes per game as a fifth-year senior, which is a big red flag. He also averaged 22.9 minutes per game in his fourth season at Drexel in 2023-24, so it wasn’t just him getting lost in the shuffle at Kentucky.
It’s easier for Williams to rate highly in effort stats on a rate basis when he plays under 25 minutes a game. He was able to go max effort while on the floor in college, which was more difficult for players who were counted on to play more minutes.
Still, Williams is projected by the model to be the second-best defensive prospect in the draft. He’s flashed versatility on that end and could be a nice plug-and-play center capable of defending in multiple schemes. He got more disciplined around the rim during his time in college and is good at using his length to alter shots.
Williams won’t hear his name called in the top five of the first round, but there are reasons the model projects him to be a difference-maker, and he’ll go in the area of the draft in which there won’t be much risk in taking him. He’s worth a flier.
15. Tre Johnson, Texas
Johnson is a lethal shooter with an impressive array of moves off the dribble. The Texas product has one of the more impressive highlight tapes of any player in the class.
He’s not a great passer and doesn’t get to the rim very often, but the rest of his offensive game is good enough that he’s ranked as the fifth-best offensive prospect in the class. So why is the guard ranked 15th instead of in the top 10, where most mocks have him projected to go?
As you might have deduced from process of elimination, it’s because of his defense. While a lot of good shooters struggle on defense, the model projects Johnson as particularly bad on that end of the floor. He has the worst defensive projection of any of the top-80 prospects in the model.
It was easy to see the hiccups on defense from Johnson last season. He didn’t generate turnovers and got caught on screens constantly. He was susceptible to getting blown by while on the ball. There weren’t a lot of positive signs defensively.
But it’s easy to forget Johnson had to carry a huge offensive burden for Texas. While a player like Amari Williams could expand all his energy in limited minutes, Johnson ranked 20th among major conference players in minutes per game while having the entire weight of the Longhorns offense on his shoulders as a freshman.
He was likely conserving some energy on that side of the ball. He’s also not dramatically undersized at close to 6-5 with a 6-10 wingspan.
If a team thinks Johnson can improve dramatically defensively due to these factors, he’s worth a pick higher than 15 because of his offensive ability. But there’s risk involved because he was a subpar college defender and will be played off the floor in key moments without a lot of improvement.
28. Egor Demin, BYU
On the surface, there’s a lot to like about Demin. He’s a big wing with passing chops – the kind of archetype NBA teams love. He was also invited to the green room at the draft, meaning there’s a good chance he’s a lottery pick.
But the Russian wing has some holes in his game that the model projects could be problems for him at the next level. Offensively, he’s not a good enough shooter or scorer yet to unlock his passing skills.
Demin’s shooting profile (27.3% on 3s, 69.5% on free throws) is a major red flag. He also struggled to get good looks at the basket, as physical defenders pushed him off drives.
The lack of scoring is concerning, because teams will go under screens on him and refuse to send help even when he gets an advantage. He’s a great passer, but the passing lanes won’t be there unless he unlocks other parts of his game.
Defensively, Demin’s lack of strength and lateral quickness can surface. He’s a smart team defender with good timing, so he could develop into a solid player on that end of the floor. But he likely will need to stand out on offense to justify being a lottery selection and there is a lot of risk in his profile. He will need a lot of runway at the next level.
31. Ace Bailey, Rutgers
It would surprise many people that Bailey is outside our model’s top 30 (albeit by one spot). He’s almost certainly going to be selected in the top five on draft night and could go as high as third to the Philadelphia 76ers.
But he also fits the profile of several highly drafted busts from the past. He looks the part of an NBA player physically and is great at hitting tough fadeaways with defenders all over him.
There are warts within the other parts of his game. Bailey shot 34.6% on 3s and 69.2% on free throws, so his shooting is still a question mark. Even if the shot comes along, he’s a non-factor as a passer, as he never demonstrated the ability to pass at anything more than a basic level.
Bailey also is a below-average ball handler who had trouble getting to the lane against physically gifted defenders.
There are a lot of areas Bailey will need to improve to be a consistently great offensive player. Tough shot-makers are nice, but not as nice as ones who generate easy shots. A team will bet on Bailey’s ceiling, but his floor is quite low.
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