The Pacers changed the trajectory of the NBA Finals with their Game 3 win. We break down how they’ve jumped ahead of the Thunder heading into Game 4.
The challenge of breaking down any NBA series is determining whether occurrences are turning points or one-time scenarios.
In a seven-game series, there will be outliers. A player having a hot shooting night doesn’t guarantee he’ll shoot well the rest of the series. But if the player is shooting well because he figured out something about the opposing defense, it could turn into a trend.
It’s impossible to know exactly what from the Indiana Pacers’ 116-107 win in Game 3 of the NBA Finals Wednesday night will carry over to Game 4 Friday night. But it’s important to examine what feels sustainable because among the noise is the Pacers’ blueprint to winning the series.
The Pacers pulled out an incredible win in Game 1 that stole away home-court advantage from the heavily favored Oklahoma City Thunder, but it’s hard to rely on coming back from large deficits late as something that’s repeatable. Yes, the Pacers have had an absurd comeback in every series now, but they won the previous two series by grabbing an improbable win and then adjusting to be the better team for the rest of the series.
That’s why Game 3 against OKC felt different. The Pacers didn’t win because of an improbable late-game comeback or a shooting anomaly. They won because they dominated two full quarters of play (outscoring the Thunder by a combined 26 points in the second and fourth).
So while Game 1 was fun, the Pacers will likely need two more games like Game 3 to win the title. Here are certain aspects that were different about Game 3, and how they could impact the series moving forward if they prove to be the new normal.
Reserve Reset
We’ve broken down how the play T.J. McConnell and Bennedict Mathurin was the key in Game 3. But does that mean they can be the deciding factor moving forward?
The Thunder likely aren’t going to change how they play McConnell, except they may have learned the hard way not to let their guard down against him. It wouldn’t be surprising if coach Mark Daigneault spends part of his Game 4 pregame speech discussing inbounds passes. That is the impact the reserve guard can have.
The Thunder also need to make an extra effort in getting back on defense when McConnell is in the game pushing the pace. But considering the team is exceptional at transition defense and was successful getting back the first two games, it feels like they’ll make that adjustment as well.
Mathurin is a different story. It’s easy to write off his Game 3 performance as his one big game in the series. That might end up being true.
But it wasn’t an outlier shooting performance that buoyed the third-year guard’s stat line. He hit two of his three 3-point attempts but did most of his damage attacking the paint. The Thunder didn’t give him a lot of attention when Tyrese Haliburton and McConnell had the ball, and Mathurin made them pay.
Mathurin, who averaged 16.1 points during the regular season, also got to the free-throw line eight times, which is a huge development because Haliburton has yet to take a free throw in this series.
The ideal way to guard Mathurin is to bring an aggressive secondary defender because he’s not a great passer. But the Thunder don’t want to dedicate a hard rotation to Mathurin, especially when Haliburton or Pascal Siakam is on the floor. A lot of Mathurin’s paint touches come after the defense has already been bent by another player. The Thunder were relying on Mathurin being a player they could help off to put out other fires.
At the very least, the defender guarding Mathurin is going to be a step slower when it comes time to help after he tore them up in Game 3. Even if he doesn’t have another big game statistically, he’s forced an Oklahoma City adjustment, and that’s a win for the Pacers.
Pointing Up
Everyone who watched Game 2 knew Haliburton had to be more of a factor for the Pacers to bounce back Wednesday night.
But it wasn’t as simple as telling him to be more aggressive. Haliburton needed help from his teammates to get more opportunities.
The Pacers used a blend of unpredictability and better execution to get the 6-foot-5 point guard the chances he needed.
The strength of coach Rick Carlise’s offense lies in its malleability. Haliburton is the engine, but he doesn’t have to be exclusively a high pick-and-roll player.
The Thunder’s defense is like an elite NFL quarterback. If they know what is coming, they’ll beat it, so varying looks is a must. The Pacers need screens to free up Haliburton against OKC, and they did a better job at differentiating exactly where they set screens and flipping screens at the last second.
Haliburton also took a page out of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s playbook and rejected screens when he felt defenders preparing for them too early. He got to his floater multiple times by exploiting an overeager defender.
The Pacers’ screen variance was so good they caught guard Alex Caruso – possibly the best screen navigator in the league – by surprise on multiple possessions. Haliburton got enough breathing room to work with and had his best game of the series.
Indiana will need to constantly adjust to keep OKC on its heels, but it’s uniquely equipped to do so.
Almost nobody picked them heading into this series, but now the Pacers are slowly turning the tide. Our projection model gives them a 31.2% probability of winning Game 4 and a 26.4% chance of winning the title (as of Thursday). That’s up from 9.6% at the start of the Finals.
Game 4 Win Probability: Thunder 68.8%
Series Win Probability: Thunder 73.6%
Thunder Optimism?
Most of the developments in Game 3 were in favor of the Pacers, but the Thunder did get better performances from their second- and third-best players.
Jalen Williams finally had an efficient game, finishing with 26 points on 9-of-18 shooting after shooting under 40% in each of the first two games. He’s gotten more aggressive as the series has gone on and took a game-high 11 free throws.
Williams is better when he’s aggressive, but he did turn it over four times in Game 3 after having just two turnovers combined in the first two games. Still, the Thunder will take the tradeoff because they desperately need his rim pressure as the Pacers do everything they can to stop SGA.
On the surface, Chet Holmgren’s Game 3 numbers don’t pop. He scored 20 points but shot just 6 of 15 from the floor. But his numbers were suppressed by going 0 for 6 from beyond the arc.
Holmgren made 6 of 9 on his 2-point attempts after shooting 5 of 8 on 2-point attempts in Game 2. He’s gotten off to terrific starts inside the last two games and it’s helped open up the rest of the Thunder’s offense.
OKC has chosen to play mostly one-big lineups in this series, likely to get more capable perimeter defenders on the floor like Cason Wallace and Lu Dort. But the Western Conference finals winner needs to try Holmgren and Hartenstein together more. They’ve played 10 minutes, 17 seconds together in the series and outscored the Pacers 22-15 in that time.
While that is an extremely small sample against mostly bench units for the Pacers, it’s earned a more extended look, especially since both players have been difference-makers in the series.
Regardless of whether he plays with Hartenstein more, Holmgren’s dominance inside is a story to watch for the duration of the NBA Finals.
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NBA Finals Predictions: Will the Pacers’ Adjustments Against the Thunder Be the Turning Point of the Series? Opta Analyst.
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