Every statistic that emerges about the Indiana Pacers seems more remarkable than the last, their string of clutch comebacks defining the 2025 playoffs while defying logic, history and physics.
But the most unshakeable stat of them all is probably this: After Tyrese Haliburton’s latest jaw-dropping jumper stole Game 1 of the NBA Finals last week, he had made 13 of 15 field goal attempts with a chance to tie or take the lead in the last two minutes this season. Once in all four rounds of the playoffs, he has scored inside of 1.5 seconds remaining to save the Pacers from a loss.
It’s an unprecedented run of dramatic shot-making, the kind that almost renders any other form of analysis futile. Could it be that Indiana is an unusually weak Finals team that has had everything break the right way for it, including an 8-foot bounce? Maybe, but questions like that seem unfair after the same pattern repeats itself so many times. The more appropriate idea might be when it should cease to be regarded as coincidence.
The same can be posited about the 2024-25 Nuggets, perhaps to a lesser extent. As team president Josh Kroenke has lamented, assessing their season is especially difficult when they were one win away from the Western Conference Finals, yet also within arm’s reach of eighth place in the final regular-season standings.
One wrinkle to that topic — one that deserves some closure — is the Nuggets’ ability to comport themselves brilliantly under pressure. Last-second outcomes tend to be perceived as capricious. If an NBA game is decided by the last shot, make or miss, the implication of flukiness looms over all ensuing discussion.
If that’s the correct way to evaluate end-of-game situations, then Denver was closer to losing in five games against OKC than it was to winning the series. But what about when Haliburton makes that shot 13 out of 15 times? Or when the Nuggets consistently find ways to out-execute their opponents in the last 30 seconds?
It’s not just that the Nuggets finished the regular season with the third-best clutch net rating in the league, outscoring their opponents by a resounding 17 points per 100 possessions when the margin of a game was five or fewer in the last five minutes. It’s more than that.
Last December, The Denver Post attempted to measure the Nuggets’ hyper-clutch success by making up a bootleg premise called GOLP: Game On the Line Possessions. These are possessions during the last 30 seconds of regulation or the last 30 seconds of overtime when the offensive team is either tied or trailing by three points or fewer. Possessions that make you gulp.
(You can read more about GOLP criteria and GOLP success rate here.)
At the time, it felt like Denver was on a Haliburtonian heater during GOLPs. Now that an unusually theatrical season is over, The Post went back and collected the final data.
The Nuggets played 22 regular-season games featuring a GOLP, then five more in the playoffs. That adds up to 28% of their 96 total games. In a league where blowouts are the norm, that’s … a lot.
Denver’s offense scored 53 points in 39 possessions that subjectively qualified as GOLPs, shooting 17 of 33 from the field (51.5%), 5 of 13 from the 3-point line (38.5%), 12 of 20 from 2-point range (60%) and 14 of 18 from the foul line (77.8%). That’s good for a 135.9 offensive rating. The team’s success rate at tying or taking the lead was 53.4%. Only four turnovers were committed on GOLPs — perhaps most notably Nikola Jokic’s errant pass into the backcourt against none other than Indiana, in what turned out to be Michael Malone’s last game.
Jokic’s interior scoring was one of the most reliable sources of GOLP production. But the spread of wealth was fairly comprehensive, at least for a team that lacked depth. None of those five 3-pointers were made by Jokic. Rather, they belonged to Jamal Murray (Lakers), Christian Braun (Suns), Russell Westbrook (Clippers) and Aaron Gordon twice (Thunder both times). Michael Porter Jr. also made a game-winner from the midrange against Dallas.
Those moments from the supporting cast enabled the Nuggets to win games they might’ve otherwise lost. At the same time, role players clearly didn’t strike enough fear into the hearts of opposing defenses. Jokic spent the playoffs dealing with crowds in the paint, and each of Denver’s other six rotation players shot worse than 38% from 3 in the postseason. New head coach David Adelman has pinpointed consistent shooting as the most important skillset Denver needs more of.
“There’s a premium on shot-making at the times you need it. And when you get to those moments, it’s not just about making shots during the season,” he said in a comment that has resonated throughout Indiana’s run while role players have sprayed 3s.
“I never look at percentages, because that’s not real when you get into those moments,” Adelman continued. “It’s about the repetition, the confidence of making shots in those big games. And it’s a talent. … It’s not just making shots. It’s making shots in the moment.”
As for Denver’s opponents: They scored 27 points on 33 GOLPs this season. They shot 10 for 34 from the field (29.4%) and 3 for 13 from 3 (23%). They attempted only seven free throws.
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Maybe Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should’ve scored that 10-footer at the end of Game 3 in the conference semifinals, even contested. He did win MVP, after all. If he makes that shot, the series conceivably ends in five games, not seven.
In total, Denver’s opponents finished the season with an 81.8 offensive rating on GOLPs. A success rate of 35.4%. Sure, there were a couple of crushing losses. But those overall numbers pale in comparison to what the Nuggets accomplished on the offensive end, where they even pulled off a win after one GOLP resulted in Jokic chucking a ghastly airball. As Kroenke has noted, they could’ve been a first-round exit without Gordon’s tip dunk one one-thousandth of a second before the buzzer.
Parsing the luck from the situational skill can be tricky. It’s a heavy responsibility for Denver’s front office this summer.
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