In just five years, the UK’s waters will be dangerously acidic. Humans might not be able to feel the pH change, but the shellfish will. Their calcium carbonate shells will struggle to grow, slowly dissolving. Oysters, with their large outer shells, will struggle to keep their larvae alive as they fail to attach to their habitats in these new, hostile conditions.
But oceanographers are increasingly concerned that no one is listening. “We’ve been saying the same message for the last two decades,” says Professor Helen Findlay, one of the lead researchers in a new study by the UK’s Plymouth Marine Laboratory. “I’m not surprised by the results of the study. The surprise is that we’re still on this same track. We’ve reached a point now where we’re going to start seeing the real impacts pretty soon.”
David Attenborough has also issued a plea for help in the form of his new cinema-length film Ocean. He told the BBC: “After almost 100 years on the planet, I now understand the most important place on Earth is not on land, but at sea.”
Professor Helen Findlay, one of the lead researchers in a new study by Plymouth Marine Laboratory, left, in the lab (Photo: Dan Jones/Plymouth Marine Laboratory)Findlay’s new study has found that Earth reached the natural “boundary” of ocean acidity in 2020. This boundary is the safe pH limit that sea life can thrive in. “We measure the actual carbon dioxide levels going into the ocean, as it’s the carbon dioxide that reacts with seawater to form a weak acid,” she says. “We then measure the pH. From that, we can see how the chemistry is changing. The ocean’s pH is naturally slightly alkaline. Two decades ago, we were at 8.1 on the pH scale. Now we’re around about 8.05.”
It might not sound like much, but with rising carbon emissions, the problem is fast becoming a crisis. “We’re particularly concerned about the polar regions. The freshwater melt from rivers and glaciers that are coming into the ocean is making it more acidic,” she says. “There are also areas on the west coast of the US, Chile, and Angola, which naturally have a lot of deep water coming up from the bottom to the surface. Deeper water is naturally higher in CO2 anyway, so this is increasing the problem.”
With this dual effect, these oceans are seeing much quicker acidification and with it, increasing shellfish mortality rates. In Canada‘s Amundsen Gulf, over 85 per cent of sampled sea butterflies showed severe shell dissolution. Recent studies in the Southern Ocean also found mortality rates in shellfish of up to 39 per cent.
Local populations of crustaceans are already going extinct. “We have colleagues up in Sweden who have been saying for a while that a local brittle star, a type of starfish, is at risk of local extinction thanks to rising acidity. It is now not found in their areas at all. The same could be true for shellfish, oysters, and mussels.”
By 2030, Findlay predicts the UK’s oceans will meet the same fate. This will have dire consequences for the already over-fished wild salmon and cod, which will struggle to feed on the dwindling crustaceans. With fewer salmon in our seas, the price of this much-loved fish will only increase.
These fish may also face behavioural changes that result in diminishing numbers: “Cod, in their early life stages, may not be able to manage their internal physiology as well in this new environment.” In the same way, a human’s body needs to be at a certain pH to maintain optimum health, fish similarly will struggle if their habitat changes pH levels. “There is some evidence that they are changing their behaviour in more acidic conditions in the lab, so they’re not able to detect prey as well as they were before.”
If they fail to adapt, salmon and cod could also be impacted by increasing sealife mortality. “We’re gonna end up in a lot more trouble if we don’t get that message out,” says Findlay.
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It’s not just fish. In the Pacific, coral reefs are already struggling. “The acidity is giving the reefs osteoporosis, which is making them dissolve away at the core base of those structures. Those habitats will be more brittle and become less diverse.” One recent study found that 94 per cent of coral reefs will be eroded by 2050 as a result of these high emissions. Findlay warns that without coral reefs, storms will worsen.
In 2018, scientists predicted that the annual damages from flooding would double if we lost our coral reefs, causing £3bn worth of damage every year. Indonesia, the Philippines and Cuba would be most impacted by this flooding. “Livelihoods in developing nations and small island states are highly dependent on marine ecosystems,” says Findlay. “Their economies will be significantly impacted, as well as tourism to those countries.”
It’s a chemical equation that the world can’t argue with: The more CO2 in the water, the more acidic the pH becomes. “The only real solution is to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions. That’s absolutely got to happen if we want to stop this.”
But after decades of sounding the alarm, researchers feel they are talking to a brick wall. Some are looking for more immediate solutions. “One mitigation could be marine carbon dioxide removal, so something like alkalinity enhancement, where you are adding alkaline minerals back into the ocean. Those researchers are looking at how feasible it would be to crush minerals and alkaline solutions, but that would mean huge ocean-scale additions every year for the next 100 years. “
There are also local solutions. “For example, if you have a reef, is it possible to add some alkaline minerals near that reef to give it a buffer against acidification?”
It is still not clear whether these interventions will be effective, or even affordable, for many countries. But what is sure is that shellfish such as oysters and mussels will be some of the first to face dwindling numbers. “We’ve now got a lot more data and a lot more evidence to show what we have known has been happening for a long time,” says Findlay. “A lot of that uncertainty is gone.”
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