Trump’s trade war won’t just cripple domestic markets—it will slow global gross domestic product growth to its lowest point in 17 years.
The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report found that “international discord” surrounding trade has “upended many of the policy certainties that helped shrink extreme poverty and expand prosperity after the end of World War II.”
The report did not name President Trump explicitly, but made it clear that his unprecedented tariffs—a 10 percent tax on imports from the entire world—were the direct cause of the drop in global and domestic economic growth.
“The rise in trade barriers, heightened uncertainty, and the spike in financial market volatility are set to weigh on private consumption, international trade, and investment,” the report stated. “As a result, U.S. growth is expected to decelerate sharply in 2025, to 1.4 percent.” Additionally, global output is expected to slip by 0.5 percent.
The report’s future outlook is also not encouraging.
“In 2026-27, a tepid recovery is expected, leaving global output materially below January projections, the report said. “The outlook largely hinges on the evolution of trade policy globally. Growth could turn out to be lower if trade restrictions escalate or if policy uncertainty persists, which could also result in a build-up of financial stress … On the upside, uncertainty and trade barriers could diminish if major economies reach lasting agreements that address trade tensions.”
It’s clear that these hits to GDP will impede the growth of the domestic and the international working class, as Trump struggles to make a single trade deal while kneecapping the U.S’s diplomatic legitimacy in the process.
“The world economy today is once more running into turbulence,” World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill wrote. “Without a swift course correction, the harm to living standards could be deep.”
President Trump has yet to comment on the World Bank’s report.
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