Matheus Cunha has been Wolves’ best player since signing permanently ahead of the 2023-24 season. Now, he looks like he will be a Manchester United player next season. What will they be getting?
The dust has barely settled on Manchester United’s most disappointing season in decades and they’re seemingly already making moves to address their deficiencies.
According to widespread reports, a deal for Wolves’ Matheus Cunha is a mere formality at this stage with personal terms and a transfer fee apparently agreed.
The Brazil international would appear to be a pretty sound fit for Ruben Amorim’s 3-4-3 system, and he’s proven over the past two years that he’s more than capable of impressing in the Premier League.
Here, we look at the impact he’s enjoyed at Wolves and how that’s led to interest from across Europe, with United the clear frontrunners to earn his signature.
Leader of the Pack
Cunha has undoubtedly been one of Wolves’ key attacking players, if not their most important. His third season at the club has proven to be his best in terms of attacking output.
He recorded 21 goal involvements in the Premier League this term, two more than the 19 he managed in 2023-24, with 15 of them goals – that’s a career best for a single league campaign.
Cunha features in the top 10 this season for both proportion of team goals scored (27.8% – 9th) and proportion scored or assisted (38.9% – 9th) in the Premier League. That’s just like last season, when he ranked ninth (24.0% of goals scored) and fourth (38.0% involved in) respectively.
While he didn’t have much of an impact in his first half-season after joining on loan from Atlético Madrid in January 2023 (one goal, two assists in 17 apps), he’s been a revelation at the club in his two seasons since signing permanently.
With 39 non-penalty goal involvements in 65 league appearances since the start of 2023-24, Cunha ranks behind only seven players for his attacking output in the division over that time, and none of those play for clubs who’ve been in a genuine relegation battle. That tally is also more than double any other Wolves player across those two seasons (Jørgen Strand Larsen the next most with 18).
Cunha has attempted 183 shots, with 82 of those on target since the start of last season, far exceeding the output of any other Wolves player. In fact, across the Premier League over that time, no player has had a greater proportion of a team’s total shots than Cunha has for Wolves (21.3%).
Five of his 27 goals (18.5%) have come from outside the box, which is a tally only six players have bettered since the start of last season.
However, this does raise one question…
Is Cunha’s Form Sustainable?
In 2024-25, Cunha scored 15 goals (none from the penalty spot) from 8.6 non-penalty expected goals (xG). So, he scored nearly double what would’ve been expected of the ‘average’ player from the shots he’s had. This follows a similar pattern to 2023-24, when he also exceeded his non-penalty xG (+2.3).
Over those two seasons, only Phil Foden (+10.5) has outperformed his non-penalty xG total by more than Cunha (+8.7).
Consistently overperforming on xG models is possible but usually restricted to only the elite finishers in the game. Cunha himself may say he is in this group (Opta don’t record confidence as a metric, sorry), but the phrase “what goes up, must come down” springs to mind.
Looking at some of the best forwards still playing in the top five European leagues shows how hard it is to sustainably score at a higher rate than your xG.
Only seven players across the top five European leagues have recorded at least 10.0 non-penalty xG in as many as five of the past seven seasons and seen their goal tally exceed that xG more often than not: Kylian Mbappé (7 times out of 7 seasons), Harry Kane (6/7), Robert Lewandowski (5/7), Lionel Messi (4/5), Wissam Ben Yedder (4/6), Mohamed Salah (4/7), Lautaro Martínez (4/6) and Erling Haaland (4/5) – players mostly considered among the best forwards in Europe in recent memory.
For Cunha to consistently outperform his xG season-on-season isn’t out of the question, but it’s unlikely.
Ball-Carrying Ability
Cunha isn’t all about goalscoring, though; that’s obvious to anyone who watches him play regularly.
One of his main strengths is his ability to run with the ball and progress upfield. Since the start of last season, he’s among a group of just 15 players to have both attempted (55) and created (38) 35+ shots for his team(s) following a ball carry, while he’s one of only 12 players to have been involved in at least 12 goals following a carry.
His ability to carry the ball over long distances has been helpful for a Wolves team who have often played with a low block and looked to counter opponents over the last two seasons.
Cunha has averaged 8.8 metres when travelling with the ball upfield since the start of last season in the Premier League. Of players who’ve travelled at least 2,000m via progressive carries in that time, only Anthony Elanga (10.4m) and Chiedozie Ogbene (10.8m) have averaged greater distance with their progressive carries in the competition.
His ball-carrying ability means he ranks high for take-ons, too. Only two players – Jérémy Doku and Mohammed Kudus – have attempted more take-ons in the Premier League since the start of last season than Cunha (290), while he also ranks in the top four for those exclusively in the opposition’s half (213).
Disciplinary History
It’s difficult to talk about Cunha without discussing his much-publicised disciplinary record in 2024-25, though.
This season saw him miss six matches across two spells after being banned for incidents against Ipswich Town in December and Bournemouth in an FA Cup tie in March. That could have been even longer if he hadn’t offered to pay for some new glasses for the Ipswich security staff member he became entangled with.
Nevertheless, only the Bournemouth incident led to a red card being given out, and Cunha’s been shown 15 cards in total since the start of last season in all competitions for Wolves (14 yellows, one red) which isn’t especially alarming. It’s not even inside the top 50 Premier League players in that timeframe, with the most-carded players (Moisés Caicedo – 27 yellows, and Edson Álvarez – 24 yellows, 2 reds) on far more than Cunha.
It must be said that ill-discipline hasn’t been an issue for Cunha throughout his career, either. Last season was the first since 2020-21 at Hertha BSC in Germany that he’d exceeded five yellow cards in a competitive season (9), although that number did lead the team rankings that campaign.
So, although this could be an area United look to emphasise the importance of improving in, it doesn’t appear to be a huge concern at the moment.
Fit With Manchester United
One of the most appealing aspects of Matheus Cunha’s potential move to Manchester United is how well he seems to fit into Rúben Amorim’s system.
Cunha has already spent much of this season playing in a similar setup, with both Gary O’Neil and then Vítor Pereira deploying a 3-4-2-1 formation at Wolves – the exact same system Amorim is firmly committed to.
Cunha has typically operated as the left-sided number 10 in that shape, playing 61% of his minutes there this season.
In possession, that formation often shifts into a 3-3-2-2 — a structure Wolves have used 34.1% of the time under Pereira, and one that United have transitioned into 32.4% of the time under Amorim.
Within that 3-3-2-2, Cunha has mostly played as one of the two advanced forwards, but he’s also shown comfort dropping deeper into a supporting midfield role.
Much has been made of Amorim inheriting a squad with several players unsuited to his preferred system. Alejandro Garnacho, for instance, is reportedly on the way out after struggling to adapt as one of the dual number 10s. If his apparent replacement, Cunha, is landed, the Portuguese manager should have no similar complaints.
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Matheus Cunha Proved Himself as Wolves’ Most Influential Player – His Expected Move to Man Utd Would Be Deserved Opta Analyst.
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