The UK has been put at risk of dengue fever, chikungunya and zika virus by climate change, infectious disease experts have warned.
Unpleasant viruses, that have previously been confined to much warmer countries, could be entering the country for the first time.
Climate change has already fostered the conditions for a new mosquito species – the Asian tiger mosquito, or Aedes albopictus – to become widespread in London and the south east because they are the warmest parts of the country. Over the next 20 to 30 years, much of the rest of the country is expected to warm up sufficiently for the mosquitoes to become established there, too.
The Asian tiger mosquito is responsible for transmitting viruses such as dengue fever, chikungunya and zika virus. The symptoms of these viruses include fever, headaches, muscle and joint pain, nausea, vomiting and fatigue. They can very occasionally be fatal.
The warning comes after the UK Health Security Agency said this week that it had detected the West Nile virus in mosquitoes in the country for the first time.
This is thought to be because warming temperatures have greatly increased the number of ‘Aedes vexans’ mosquitoes in the UK that can carry the virus and infect humans through their bites. West Nile virus can cause a sudden onset of influenza-like illness in humans.
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The UKHSA said the risk to the public was “very low” as there is no evidence to suggest that any of the infected mosquitoes had bitten any humans.
Instead, the fragments of the virus were detected in the mosquitoes by the UKHSA as part of a surveillance programme.
There is no indication that the virus is now circulating in the UK. The virus identified by the UKHSA is thought to be an isolated case in which a UK-based mosquito bit a migrating bird from overseas carrying the infection.
As such, the West Nile virus is not established in the UK – at least for now – but rather came here from abroad.
Were the virus to become established, or endemic, it would begin circulating in birds and mosquitoes and the risk of infection would become much higher.
But scientists said the detection of the virus showed just how much the warming climate is increasing risks to the UK from mosquito-borne diseases more generally.
The UKHSA said the Asian tiger mosquito has already been detected – and eradicated – in the UK on eight occasions, most likely arriving from overseas through travel or trade. But such detections are expected to become far more common in the coming years and may well lead to populations becoming established in parts of the UK over time.
It is hard to say for certain if, and exactly when, the likes of dengue fever, chikungunya or zika virus would become endemic, or common.
That is because it is not known for sure if or when the Asian tiger mosquito will become established, or widespread – and, in turn, when the conditions will be suitable for the viruses to survive and prosper.
But even before any of these viruses did become endemic, it is quite possible we could start to see isolated cases of people being infected by one or more of them in London and the south east – at any point from now.
“It could happen any time,” Professor Steven Sinkins, an expert in microbiology and tropical medicine at Glasgow University, told The i Paper.
“It is possible that over a hot summer the mosquitoes reach sufficient numbers for transmission to occur,” he said, adding that the conditions are not yet right for any of the viruses to become permanently established because the mosquitoes would not survive the winter.
Professor Sinkins explained that the Asian tiger mosquito “has invaded and spread through much of Europe in recent years, now being widespread in Italy and occurring as far north as the Netherlands and Paris. It has transmitted both dengue and chikungunya viruses in France and Italy.”
He added: “Eggs of this mosquito have been detected in Kent and London in the last few years, and the climate in southern England is suitable for it to become established. If that happens it will both cause biting nuisance and also probably transmit viruses such as dengue and chikungunya in the summertime.
“There is growing concern that it will eventually become established in the UK and cause outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya, as is being seen in France and Italy,” Professor Sinkins said.
Expect more mosquito bites
The UKHSA says that the rest of England could become suitable for the Asian tiger mosquito to become established by the 2050s – followed by most of Wales, Northern Ireland and the Scottish Lowlands in the 2070s.
And, viruses aside, the increase in the mosquito population would make bites more common, scientists warn.
Amber Sawyer, of the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit think tank, told The i Paper: “Dengue, chikungunya, zika and West Nile virus are all pretty nasty viral infections that cause symptoms like fever, headaches, muscle and joint pain, nausea, vomiting, fatigue and rash. Some people have no or mild symptoms, others get really sick and some people die, though this is rare.”
Professor Sinkins added that “dengue can be fatal and chikungunya can cause long-term joint pain and disability”.
A UKHSA spokesperson told The i Paper: “Currently, people in the UK are much more likely to acquire a mosquito borne infection abroad than in this country. But this will likely change in future. Our surveillance is in place to help us plan, detect and respond to threats as they emerge.
“Outside of West Nile virus, the rapid spread of dengue in Europe is cause for concern. A warming climate… raises the risk of diseases like Lyme disease, tick-borne encephalitis; and potentially even dengue, chikungunya, and zika if non-native mosquito species establish themselves.”
The viruses heading to the UK
West Nile virus: Most people infected with West Nile virus do not have symptoms. About one in five people have symptoms like fever, rash and muscle aches. Rarely, West Nile can cause serious brain and spinal cord inflammation (encephalitis and meningitis).
Dengue fever: It is not usually serious and often gets better on its own. Some people get a more severe type of dengue, but this is rare. These symptoms include severe tummy pain, repeatedly being sick, fast breathing, bleeding gums or nose, extreme tiredness (fatigue), being unable to relax (restlessness) and blood in your vomit or poo.
Chikungunya: The most common symptoms of chikungunya are fever and joint pain. Other symptoms can include headache, muscle pain, joint swelling, or rash.
Zika: For most people it is mild and not harmful but it can cause problems if you are pregnant. The most common symptoms are: a high temperature, a headache, sore, red eyes, swollen joints and joint and muscle pain, a rash and itching all over the body.
The virus can harm a developing baby if you get it when you’re pregnant. It can cause problems with the baby’s brain and may mean the baby having an unusually small head (microcephaly).
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