Goldman Sachs expects China’s export volumes to contract by 5% in both 2025 and 2026, citing mounting U.S. tariffs and strained trade relations.
In a recent note, the bank’s analysts said, “Reaching a near-term deal is very difficult, and the substantial increase in U.S. tariffs on China is expected to significantly weigh on Chinese exports.”
While some offset may come from trade re-routing through Southeast Asia, Goldman also forecasts a modest drop in China’s goods trade surplus — falling to 3.7% of GDP in 2025, from 4.0% in 2024.
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