As we look to end the week, once again the impact of the option expiries should be relatively muted. There are some big ones but they aren't sitting too close to the current spot levels. The dollar is holding up ahead of European trading amid some positive murmurs as US and China look to be working towards exempting certain goods from tariffs. But doesn't that just mean tariffs will be more of a mainstay? ¯_(ツ)_/¯
We're seeing risk catch a bounce after a solid recovery in trading yesterday, helped by this very vague comment by Trump on China. I think you can sort of see how desperate the market is for some relief.
We're not pricing in the worst of things yet as investors look to be holding out some hope that all these tariffs will eventually be watered down before the real pain hits. I reckon the window for that is between the next one to two months, before all the hard data starts feeding through into more material economic data. That is when reality might hit hard on markets if tariffs are staying the course.
But for now and for today, we are seeing the dollar hold up a little at least. However, that is not to say that the greenback is poised for a stronger showing. We can see how yesterday that a bid in US stocks and Treasuries did not translate to anything meaningful for the dollar as it still got sold. If anything, it shows that there is still some anxiety in broader markets.
Circling back to the expiries above, they aren't likely to see much - if any - impact on the day. Trading sentiment will continue to be driven by the same factors over the past two weeks or so instead.
For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.
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