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Canada holds a federal election on 28 April amid a fierce debate on how to face Trump’s tariffs. Polls and betting odds project that Liberals, led by PM Mark Carney, will win with an absolute majority. This scenario is likely priced in by markets, and should have a limited short-term impact on CAD. A surprise Conservative win could instead trigger a CAD rallyBased on latest polls, CBC projects Liberals will win 151-226 seats, with a central projection at 191, well above the 170 absolute majority threshold. Conservatives are projected around 94-156 seats, the Bloc Quebecois 12-29 and the New Democrats 0-18.Re forecasts:
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