Aston Villa vs Newcastle Prediction ...Middle East

Aston Villa are rated as the slight favourites against fellow Champions League hopefuls Newcastle United this weekend. Look ahead to the game at Villa Park with our Aston Villa v Newcastle prediction and preview.

Aston Villa vs Newcastle Stats: The Key Insights

Aston Villa host Newcastle United on Saturday in a game that could have huge ramifications in the race for Champions League football next season.

With fifth now being enough to secure a spot at Europe’s top table via Premier League placing next term, there is an added opportunity for the teams hoping to get a slice of the lucrative money on offer.

Now out of the UEFA Champions League following their aggregate defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the quarter-finals, the Premier League is Aston Villa’s only route back into the competition next season.

Unai Emery’s men have been in excellent form domestically to boost their hopes, with their 3-0 win over Southampton last time out making if four straight wins in the Premier League.

In that time, Villa have conceded only once and they are now looking to rack up five straight wins for the first time since April 2023.

However, keeping clean sheets at Villa Park has been tricky in recent times for the Villans. Since keeping five consecutive shutouts between March and April 2023, Emery’s men have managed just six in their last 37 on home soil. Nevertheless, they are unbeaten in 15 home league games (W8, D7) despite keeping just two clean sheets in that run.

Their victory over Saints last weekend was achieved despite two missed penalties from Marco Asensio. Villa have now missed three of the five spot-kicks they’ve taken in the top flight this season, a conversion rate of only 40%. Among teams to have taken five-plus penalties in a season, this is the lowest since Southampton in 2019-20 (also 2/5, 40%).

All three of their goals against Southampton came from substitutes, as they became the first team in Premier League history to see as many as three different subs score in the same match (Ollie Watkins, John McGinn and Donyell Malen). Overall this season, their 17 goals from subs in all competitions is more than any other Premier League side.

Fresh from starring in the visit of PSG on Tuesday, Marcus Rashford could be key for Villa against the Magpies. On a per-90-minute basis in the Premier League this season, the England forward is having more touches (54), shots (3.8), creating more chances (2.8) and attempting more dribbles (5) for Villa than he did for Manchester United (42 touches, 1.5 shots, 1.4 chances created and 3.5 dribbles).

Newcastle aren’t to be taken lightly, though. They are having an excellent season, and even though they’ve been without manager Eddie Howe in the dugout after his hospitalisation with pneumonia, they’ve continued to perform under Jason Tindall’s guidance. In the two league games Howe has missed, they’ve hammered Manchester United 4-1 and Crystal Palace 5-0 at St. James’ Park, and he’ll be absent again on Saturday.

The Magpies also have an excellent away record and have now won eight of their past 10 games on the road in all competitions (L2), with their only defeats in that time coming at Manchester City and Liverpool. Their away win percentage is 53% (10 wins in 19 games), only having a higher percentage in 2016-17 (54%, 14 wins in 26) in their entire history.

Indeed, only Liverpool (35) and Arsenal (28) have amassed more away Premier League points this season than Newcastle (27). The Magpies have won eight games on the road this season, last winning more in 2001-02 (9).

Jacob Murphy continued his fine form with a goal and an assist in Wednesday’s win over Palace, taking him to 22 goal involvements in all competitions this season. That includes 13 assists, which is five more than any other player at the club in 2024-25.

Alexander Isak‘s goal in the 5-0 midweek victory was his 25th in all competitions this season, with 21 of those coming in the Premier League. Isak’s 27 goal involvements this term is the most for a Newcastle player in a Premier League season since Alan Shearer in 2001-02 (also 27).

Leon Bailey has missed three straight Premier League games but will hope to feature this weekend, while Newcastle are without Sven Botman, Lewis Hall and Jamaal Lascelles.

Aston Villa vs Newcastle Head-to-Head

Newcastle have won their past three Premier League games against Aston Villa, impressively scoring three goals on each occasion.

Indeed, only against Tottenham have Newcastle won more consecutively in the competition while scoring three-plus goals each time (five between 2006 and 2008).

Villa have lost five of their last six Premier League games against Newcastle, winning just once in that run. That represents as many defeats as they had in the previous 16 against the Magpies in the division (W4, D7).

Aston Villa vs Newcastle Prediction

Villa know how important a win could be here and, while their recent record against Newcastle is poor, they are favourites to triumph with the Opta supercomputer, coming out on top in 41.4% of the 10,000 simulations conducted.

But it is sure to be a tight game and Newcastle own a 33.8% win probability, with the draw occurring on 24.8% of the outcomes.

Aston Villa vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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Aston Villa vs Newcastle Prediction Opta Analyst.

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