March non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Sentiment is bad but what about hiring? ...Middle East

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March non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Sentiment is bad but what about hiring?
Consensus estimate +135K Estimate range +50K to +185KFebruary was +151K Private consensus +135K versus +151K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1% versus 4.1% priorPrior unrounded unemployment rate 4.1396%Prior participation rate 62.4%Prior underemployment U6 8.0% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% versus +4.0% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.3% priorAvg weekly hours exp 34.2 versus 34.1 prior

Numbers released so far this month:

ADP report +155K versus +84K priorISM services employment 46.2 vs 53.9 prior ISM manufacturing employment 44.7 vs 47.6 priorChallenger job cuts 275.2k vs 172.0k prior Philly employment +19.7 vs +5.3 priorEmpire employment -4.1 vs -3.6 prior Initial jobless claims survey week 225K vs 219K prior

The strongest argument for a good number in March is that February jobs (particularly in leisure & hospitality) were depressed by poor weather.

    Seasonally, BMO reports that that the unemployment rate tends to run low but the headline also tends to run low. Historic data shows 42% of previous unemployment reads in March have been lower-than-expected, 31% have been higher-than- estimates, and 27% have matched the consensus. The headline payrolls print is seasonally soft in February, coming in below estimates 56% of the time and beating 44% of the time, by 73k and 64k, respectively, on average.

    This would not be a good time for a big miss.

    This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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