Donald Trump’s pursuit of a deal with Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine could have been a factor in Russia’s omission from sweeping global tariffs, analysts believe.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Russia was not included due to existing sanctions that “preclude any meaningful trade,” along with nations such as Belarus, North Korea, and Cuba.
But other countries under US sanctions such as Iran and Syria were included, as were countries with fewer exports to the US and smaller trade deficits such Haiti, Uganda, and uninhabited islands.
Russia exports to the US were worth $3b (£2.28b) in 2024, including fertilisers and precious stones, although this marked a sharp decline on the last pre-war 2021 figure of $35b, according to US government figures.
Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Institute for Strategic Studies and former UK ambassador to Belarus, said it was unclear at this stage if Moscow could still be subject to a minimum rate of 10 per cent tariffs that was imposed on many countries, including the UK, but there was “certainly no sign of anything more.”
Gould-Davies said the White House’s explanation was “untrue” as several smaller trading partners were subjected to tariffs, adding that Russia’s omission also contradicted threats by Trump to impose tariffs over non-cooperation on a ceasefire.
The US president said last week he was “angry” and “pissed off” over Putin’s positions in talks.
Gould-Davies said “yes” when asked if ongoing negotiations to end the war could be a factor in Russia being left off the list, as Trump continues to push for a deal he has repeatedly promised to deliver.
Firefighters work at a storehouse following a Russian attack in Odesa, Ukraine, last month (Photo: Ukrainian Emergency Service via AP)The former ambassador noted that Putin’s representative and head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, travelled to Washington this week – the first senior Russian official to do so since 2022 – reportedly meeting with Trump’s special envoy and top negotiator Steve Witkoff.
Dmitriev said he hoped the meetings would lead to improved economic relations.
“A real understanding of the Russian position opens up new opportunities for constructive cooperation, including in the investment and economic sphere,” he was quoted as saying by Russian business newspaper Vedomosti.
Dmitriev was likely to be seeking US cooperation on oil and gas projects in Arctic and offshore sites, as he and other top Russian officials have previously raised, Gould-Davies said.
“Russia lacks the technology and experience to develop these difficult fields, and non-western states cannot provide this,” he said.
Such cooperation is a Russian priority in talks, Gould-Davies added, “or even steps to normalise the US-Russia economic relationship without a ceasefire.”
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Max Hess, a Eurasia analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) and author of Economic War: Ukraine and the Global Conflict Between Russia and the West, said the tariff process seemed “amateurish” and the decision to exclude Russia was unlikely to be a “deliberate favour.”
But Hess added that Russia may be viewed as an exceptional case that Trump has delegated to senior staff, and could have been omitted from tariffs as “it’s in the wheelhouse of Trump’s appointed people on the matter and not his trade advisors.”
“Trump has told his own people who is in charge of that issue,” he said.
The Trump administration did lift sanctions this week on Karina Rotenberg, wife of billionaire oligarch and Putin associate Boris Rotenberg, the analyst noted, although he said it was unclear if this was part of a wider shift toward sanctions relief.
The Kremlin has demanded wide-ranging sanctions relief as a condition for a ceasefire.
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