Goldman Sachs has raised its estimate for the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 35%, up from 20%. The company - not surprisingly - cites risks from escalating trade tensions and weakening consumer and business confidence. They also add that "statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies", is a contributing factor
The firm lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1% and now expects three interest rate cuts this year—in July, September, and November.
It revised its year-end inflation forecast higher to 3.5%, based on the Fed’s preferred PCE index, and sees the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% by year-end.
Other major institutions share similar concerns, with JPMorgan assigning a 40% recession probability and Moody's Analytics' Mark Zandi warning of a two-in-five chance, pointing to soft consumer spending and persistently high inflation.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.Hence then, the article about goldman sachs raises u s recession risk to 35 amid trade tensions and weak confidence was published today ( ) and is available on forex live ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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