St. Louis Fed’s Musalem:
Growth does appear to have slowed, surveys point to caution among businesses and consumersPatience with current policy appropriate as Fed gathers evidence inflation is returning to targetRisks that inflation will stall above 2% or move higher in the near term appear to have increasedWary of assuming all tariff-related price increases will be temporary; second-round effects could be more persistentIf labor market remains strong and second round tariff effects become apparent, Fed may need to keep rates higher for longer or consider more restrictive policyBaseline is for economy, job market to remain strong, inflation to fallComments are more hawkish in regard to the impact of Inflation versus the thoughts from the Fed Chair who see the impact as more transitory.
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