Goldman Sachs have taken another survey of Investor Expectations for the second Trump term. In summary:
Tariffs: Investors now assign high odds to various tariffs: reciprocal tariffs (65%), autos (59%), EU imports (57%), critical goods (54%), and Canada/Mexico (47%). Average expected increase in effective tariff rate is now 8.6 percentage points (vs. 3pp in November); Goldman forecasts a 10pp rise.
Immigration: Investors expect annual immigration to decline to 700,000, slightly above Goldman’s revised 500,000 estimate. Most anticipate at least 10% of undocumented workers will exit the labour force or leave the U.S.
Fiscal Policy: Forecasts include $100B/year in tax cuts and $150B/year in spending cuts, with a neutral net impact on the deficit expected.
Macroeconomic Outlook: Since Inauguration Day, investors have lowered 2025 GDP growth expectations by 0.6pp and raised core PCE inflation forecasts by 0.2pp. Tariffs remain the top perceived policy risk.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.Hence then, the article about tariffs remain the top perceived policy risk from the trump administration was published today ( ) and is available on forex live ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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