“Peace talks constructive. Many dead in latest massive drone strikes” is, I think, a fair summary of the latest events in the Russia-Ukraine-US trifecta. That paradox is indicative of a number of factors which will now play out fast, as Volodymyr Zelensky’s top aide, Andriy Yermak, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio conduct talks in Saudi Arabia to expedite a resolution to the war in Ukraine.
This time, there is no Russian presence: the aim was to accelerate a peace deal via concessions from Kyiv which Donald Trump can present to Moscow as a reason to stop the bombardment of its neighbour. Conversations were “constructive” and a “work in progress”, as a timid communiqué put it on Tuesday evening. A deal for a proposed 30-day ceasefire was announced.
This at least is the theoretical shape of the big, beautiful peace process, although raw reality begs to differ. Mindful that the pace and shape of events is happening under an atmosphere of threat to the future for Ukraine, Kyiv is anxious to ensure that what it forfeits when it runs out of “cards” to play, as Trump phrased it, is as limited as possible
It’s not unreasonable to wonder if Monday night’s drone attacks on Moscow are an example – as many in the Trump administration and those sceptical of Ukraine’s hopes of salvaging its independence believe – of Kyiv provoking Russia. The attacks, which killed three people, certainly did some considerable damage to Russia’s claim to be able to insulate itself from the war, even if the military impact is negligible.
Yet there is method in Kyiv’s decision to show force now, while its fate is being imposed.
The immediate aim was to show that it can penetrate Russia’s air defences – an area of clear weakness for the aggressor – and an indication that drone technology can help to offset conventional Russian superiority. More air support from the West as part of a peacekeeping deal would therefore also be a major factor in deterring Moscow from widening the conflict.
The timing and scale of this counterattack also matter: after a bruising couple of weeks in which Ukraine’s main ally in supplying military and logistical support – the US – has paused co-operation to force Zelensky into a more pliant position, Kyiv wants to show that it is open to talks, but, at the same time, that it also has the will and ability to do material damage to its opponent – and that this will not easily be squashed, even as Western support is shaky.
It is also the reason for Ukraine backing several assassinations of senior Russian officials: another line of warfare which will not be easily stopped by the stroke of a pen.
The tactical element here (as I witnessed from covering the Balkan wars after the dissolution of Yugoslavia and the grinding conflicts of Chechnya and other nasty skirmishes on the Russian periphery in the 1990s and 2000s) is that the nearer a ceasefire gets, the fiercer the scrabble for “wins” to seal achievements.
square ANNE MCELVOY
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Read MoreMost of the Ukrainian drones fired this week were shot down over the Kursk region, scene of the pivotal battle of the Second World War, just across the border from Ukraine. But others were launched far into Russian territory, as far as Nizhny Novgorod and the historic cities of Oryol and Ryazan, which forces Russian news to carry coverage it usually plays down or wholly ignores.
It is true that Ukraine is bleeding military support from the US, which imperils its ability to hold on to its gains in the counteroffensive and saps morale. But it is still able to send messages of defiance – and it should still do so.
One of the most weakening impacts of the bludgeoning of the country by Trump and more sharply still by Elon Musk, who seems to believe that Ukraine is the source of the conflict rather than the victim, is to create a narrative of hopelessness.
That is precisely what Moscow wants and why Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov yesterday sought to link the drone assault on Russia with peacekeeping plans backed by UK, France and now Spain in a “coalition of the willing” to enforce a peace agreement.
“What will the peacekeepers protect,” he asked. “The remnants of the Kyiv-Nazi regime?”
That was telling. Moscow’s tactics are always predictable and this is also an attempt to see how far the US can be tempted to drop support for any meaningful peacekeeping, by separating the European plan from Trump’s commercial ambitions for a mineral rights deal in Ukraine and business opportunities, as many US companies would like, in the Russian market.
A “win” for Russia would be replacing Zelensky. How far it can impose a Moscow puppet or whether it has to live with another opponent will become the internal political story – one which has huge implications for European security too.
A danger in the helter-skelter pace of developments is that it forces the media and pursuant political conversation to be seen through Moscow’s lens.Yes, the drone strike by Ukraine was news. But the attack being less talked about, because it is par for the course in these hostilities, was the Russian assault on the port city of Odesa. False equivalence is now baked into the US way of talking about this war.
European countries largely do not accept this misrepresentation, but also need to follow up faster with resolute plans and financial commitments on defence-funding mechanisms of their own – warm words now count for little.
From Russia’s perspective, diminishing support for Ukraine as well as imposing high casualty rates, together with the foot-dragging of Europeans and some commercial flattery to a man in charge of the US who believes he can emerge as a kind of global CEO deal-maker in chief, is attractive. It gets a ceasefire, whether followed by a lasting official truce or not, which allows President Vladimir Putin economic breathing space and time to re-arm.
In its ideal scenario, Washington does not much care about guarantees given to Ukraine, which would grant them a kind of “semi” autonomy of the kind foisted on other countries being drawn back into a template of the Soviet system by force. The firefights in the skies these days are much less about what happens in the gains and losses of a dreadful conflict than what will happen when the talks on Earth reach their crunch point.
So the question is not should Ukraine be fighting back against its invader, but how its remaining allies intend to protect the future of the four-fifths of the country Russia could not conquer, for all its force and ruthlessness. Beyond the buzz of the drone war, that is the battle that matters.
Anne McElvoy is the executive editor of the Politico website and hosts its Power Play podcast
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