As Ukraine edges towards a peace deal with Russia under the leadership of Donald Trump, the UK and Europe have focussed their minds on strengthening their defences to ensure any such agreement does not embolden Vladimir Putin.
And with an effective nuclear deterrent seen as key to holding back the Russian president, attention is turning in Britain to how the government can futureproof Trident.
Two former ministers have told The i Paper that the government should consider splitting spending on the nuclear deterrent from the rest of the defence budget to make the UK more resilient to deepening global insecurity.
The move would allow more funds from the newly expanded 2.5 per cent Ministry of Defence budget to be diverted to the armed forces and conventional weapons, while still safeguarding spending on Britain’s nuclear arsenal.
Some in the sector have called for the Strategic Defence Review, which is due to be published this spring, to examine the case for separating the two due to the increasing demands on Europe to boost funding to protect its own security.
Under such a scenario, the MoD would spend 2.5 per cent by 2027 on non-nuclear military streams such as personnel and conventional kit, while the cost of Trident and other nuclear capabilities would be funded by the Treasury directly.
It would still cost the government more money overall, however, raising questions over what would have to be cut to fund it – with aid spending already slashed to fund the MoD uplift to 2.5 per cent.
The MoD said splitting the budget was not something the SDR or government was looking at, while other experts argued that “hiving off” nuclear from the main defence budget would be counter-productive by the UK as one of only two European Nato countries with a nuclear arsenal.
The SDR is still due to be published this spring but has had to undergo several redrafts due to the rapidly changing global security situation caused by Donald Trump’s demands for more burden-sharing by Europe to pay for the war in Ukraine and the protection of the Continent’s borders.
The terms of reference of the review, chaired by former Nato secretary general Lord Robertson, says: “The Government has a total commitment to the independent UK nuclear deterrent. The SDR will consider the efficiency and effectiveness of the nuclear programme.”
Former defence minister Tobias Ellwood said he had been calling for some time for a splitting of nuclear from the rest of the MoD budget: “It would definitely be a good idea, as it exposes how little GDP we actually spend [on conventional weapons and troops] – just 1.6 per cent when you remove the nuclear deterrent.
“This would help convince the public that we must spend more on our conventional forces.”
Another former minister said the separation had been “a wish of the department [MoD] for years”.
They added: “It would make a huge difference to the MoD. The nuclear enterprise is so huge, so expensive, the costs so endlessly unpredictable, but nuclear spending so non-discretionary that the MoD would far rather it was run centrally by the Treasury/Cabinet Office and that the (conventional) defence budget was then for the MoD to manage.”
But Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director general of RUSI, said: “The government would be shooting itself in the foot by saying it’s not going to count its nuclear spending as part of its effort to meet 2.5 per cent.
“If anything the SDR will want to make a virtue of saying that the UK is spending a great deal on the nuclear deterrent, and this benefits Nato.
“There are two nuclear weapon states in Nato Europe and we are one of them. It costs a lot of money. From a Nato-relation point of view, we should want to get credit for our nuclear spending rather than hive it off to another less visible place.”
Within the MoD budget, which is currently around 2.3 per cent of GDP, spending on Trident and other nuclear capabilities has been ring-fenced since 2023 to protect the deterrent, under the Defence Nuclear Enterprise.
This has led to a cost pressure on non-nuclear capabilities.
There are also ongoing running costs for Trident and other nuclear capabilities, as well as the cost of replacing the UK’s four nuclear Vanguard submarines with a new class of Dreadnought subs, due to be phased in at the start of the next decade, which will be £31bn. This could rise to £41bn as a contingency fund of £10bn has also been set aside.
At any one time there is one sub armed with Trident at sea, with two in port or on training manoeuvres and one undergoing maintenance.
Last week French president Emmanuel Macron underlined the importance of future-proofing Europe’s nuclear capabilities when he said France would consider extending the protection of its nuclear arsenal to its allies on the Continent.
He said: “I’ve decided to open the strategic debate on the protection by our deterrence of our allies on the European continent.”
At the same time Macron warned that Europe needed to be ready for the United States under Trump to not “remain by our side” in the war in Ukraine.
The Prime Minister, Foreign Secretary and Defence Secretary have all stressed in recent days that the UK-US “special relationship” is stronger than ever, particularly after Trump’s warm endorsement of Starmer in the Oval Office last month.
But there are fears over the future of the UK’s nuclear deterrent if Washington did decide to uncouple entirely militarily from London.
While this scenario is seen as far-fetched, it would cause problems for the maintenance and upkeep of Trident.
The UK retains complete operational control over its nuclear submarines and missiles, the maintenance of the warheads is jointly carried out by the UK and US.
However even if Trump decided to cut off this cooperation, he is likely to be out of office by the time the missiles need to be replaced.
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