We look ahead to Monday’s Premier League game at the London Stadium with our West Ham vs Newcastle prediction and preview. Can Graham Potter extend his winning run?
West Ham vs Newcastle Stats: The Key Insights
Newcastle United are narrow favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, with a 42.4% chance of victory, compared to West Ham’s 31.5%. Newcastle have lost their last two Premier League away games without scoring. West Ham are looking to complete the Premier League double over Newcastle for the first time since 2018-19.West Ham have enjoyed a change in fortune of late and are looking to make it three Premier League wins on the bounce against Newcastle United, who are struggling on the road.
The Hammers initially failed to find any rhythm under Graham Potter, but they followed up a narrow win over title-chasing Arsenal with a comfortable 2-0 victory at home to Leicester City last time out in the Premier League.
However, not since December 2023 have West Ham managed three wins on the bounce in the league, back when David Moyes was in charge.
West Ham have had an impressive record when scoring first this season, winning nine of their 12 matches when going 1-0 up (D1 L2). Only Liverpool (95%) and Bournemouth (83%) boast a better win rate than West Ham (75%) in games they have opened the scoring.
They have had their troubles in front of goal, though. Only Southampton (7.5%) have a lower shot conversion rate in the Premier League than West Ham (9%) this season, and they have also hit the target with the lowest proportion of their shots (30%).
That said, goal-mouth action is almost guaranteed at the London Stadium on Monday.
West Ham’s Premier League games have seen a total of 801 shots this season (357 for and 444 against), the highest cumulative total of any side in the competition.
That might bode well for Newcastle, who are looking to end a recent away slump in the top flight, having lost 4-0 to Manchester City and 2-0 to Liverpool in their last two on the road.
They haven’t lost three in a row on the road without scoring since December/January 2020-21 (a run of four), and Eddie Howe will be keen to improve on their performance against the league leaders; they didn’t manage a single shot on target in that game.
Newcastle are unbeaten in their last three matches against sides managed by Potter (W2 D1), and the West Ham boss could therefore prove the perfect opponent for the Magpies to end a run of four losses in six league games (W2).
It could be Harvey Barnes‘ responsibility to step up with Anthony Gordon suspended – he was sent off in the FA Cup defeat to Brighton – and Lewis Hall injured. Barnes has scored more goals against West Ham than any other side (6).
Nevertheless, Alexander Isak is expected to start. There had been some doubts following his late withdrawal against Brighton, but the Swede has trained all week since.
West Ham could potentially welcome Vladimir Coufal and Lucas Paquetá back into the squad after a couple of weeks out.
West Ham vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Following their 2-0 win at St James’ Park in November, West Ham are looking to complete a Premier League double over Newcastle for the first time since 2018-19.
However, Newcastle are unbeaten in their last five away league games against the Hammers (W3 D2) since a 2-0 loss in March 2019 under Rafa Benítez.
West Ham vs Newcastle Prediction
Despite failing to win their last two away games in the Premier League, Newcastle are tipped to end that run here, triumphing in 42.4% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations.
However, West Ham made it three wins on the bounce in 31.5% of those simulations, while a draw was rated at 26.1%.
West Ham vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Monday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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West Ham vs Newcastle Prediction Opta Analyst.
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