For any Chancellor, the numbers are alarming. Our bill for sickness benefits has grown 25 per cent since before the pandemic to £65bn – and is projected to hit £100bn by 2030. It is climbing at “astonishing speed”, the Institute for Fiscal Studies notes. Inaction isn’t an option.
That’s why Rachel Reeves is confident Labour MPs will back her plan to cut benefits. We will be told “the world has changed” while she blames a cocktail of Putin, trade tariffs and the cost of borrowing.
Her words are stark. Reeves believes that most of the 1 million young people not in education, employment or training should be – and she claims they soon will be.
No Chancellor can promise that. Neither stick nor carrot will work for those people who face chronic debilitating health conditions. They also resent having to humiliatingly prove disabilities time and again.
square OLIVER DUFF
Best-case scenarios for Starmer
Read MoreThat will not deter her. Reeves will argue that the current rules encourage too many other people to “game” the system, and she fears the impact of mental ill health on Britain’s economy. There is a moral case, as well as a fiscal one, for incentivising people who can work to find employment.
Diagnosing the problem is the straightforward part. The devil will be in the policy detail.
Alongside squeezing benefits, how will the Government tackle the increase in mental health problems among young people? This includes preventative health and transforming (dire) access to services.
How will it support young people back into work, or to find their first jobs? Skills development, apprenticeships, training programmes, incentives for employers and affordable housing are integral. Let’s hear the plan.
@olyduff
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