The Florida swing continues at Bay Hill for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill presents a challenging test of golf, and historically, the winner tends to emerge from the top tier of the betting board. The tournament has regained its signature event status, limiting the field to just 72 golfers, with the cut on Friday set at the low 50 and ties, or, as observed during the Genesis Invitational, anyone within 10 shots of the lead.
Although Bay Hill measures a healthy 7,454 yards from the tips, it often plays longer than its scorecard suggests. However, distance advantages off the tee are diminished due to the many forced layups and doglegs throughout the course. These forced layups lead to numerous long approach shots, meaning this week’s field will face a higher frequency of 200+ yard approach shots than in nearly any other week this season.
Bay Hill is known for having some of the longest rough on the Tour each year, and the fairways typically play firm and fast. The overseeded ryegrass rough can be punishing, causing golfers who miss the fairways and greens to frequently scramble to make pars or avoid bogeys. It’s common for excellent tee shots to roll into the rough or, even worse, into the water.
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The 2015 redesign introduced water hazards on 11 of the 18 holes. Additionally, wind is always a significant factor at Bay Hill, so be sure to check back on Wednesday for an updated report. The most recent major change to the course occurred three years ago when most of the sloping runoff areas around the greens were replaced with thick, three-inch overseeded ryegrass rough. As a result, while around-the-green play is important—since these green complexes can be difficult to hold—Tour pros generally find it easier to navigate these conditions compared to shorter, shaved runoffs into the fast Bermuda greens.
Success at Bay Hill largely depends on placing the ball in the right spots, playing the correct angles, and maintaining patience. This is why course history is essential here. The best way to learn where to position the ball in the fairway and on the greens is through prior experience in these conditions at Bay Hill. In fact, 16 of the past 19 winners had participated in at least three Arnold Palmer Invitationals.
2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Sleeper Picks
Si Woo Kim (80/1, FanDuel)
Perhaps best suited for next week’s test on Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, Si Woo Kim makes for an interesting long-shot look this week and perhaps a sleeper in DFS at his current price. His past history at this event isn’t all that appealing, but he’s finished inside the top 40 in each of the past three seasons.
Kim’s profile works well here. He’s not overly long off the tee, but he’s going to keep the ball in play, and he’s an elite iron player. He’s also exceptionally strong around the green, which comes into play this week with a below-average greens in regulation rate at Bay Hill. If the continues are benign and the scoring gets out to the low-to-mid teens, I like this a lot less, but with winds in the forecast, I think Si Woo Kim can win this if he’s not required to make a ton of birdies.
Sahith Theegala (110/1, FanDuel)
Sahith Theegala’s performance at Bay Hill has improved every year over the previous start, and he’s coming off of his best show here last season, where he finished in a tie for sixth place. He continues to develop into a more well-rounded player with each passing season. He’s been pretty inconsistent off the tee for most of his young career, but this course clearly suits his eye. Currently, he performs best on long, challenging courses that reward Driving Distance and Scrambling.
Fortunately for Theegala, that’s what’s required at Bay Hill. These firm and fast bermudagrass greens are difficult to hold, especially when the winds kick up, so even the best iron players will be forced to scramble this week. Theegala hasn’t taken his game to the next level yet when the test and field strength are their toughest, but he certainly has the pedigree to be closer to the elite tier than his current betting price indicates. At triple-digits, I like Theegala as a long-shot play to win.
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