Paris Saint-Germain play Liverpool in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League, with the first leg in France on Wednesday. We take a look at why PSG can be a big threat to the Premier League leaders.
There’s a lot to be said for finishing top of a 36-team league made up of the strongest Europe has to offer.
Liverpool did just that in January, securing first place in the inaugural league phase of the UEFA Champions League, sealing an automatic spot in the last 16 and, supposedly, a favourable draw with it.
However, Paris Saint-Germain popped out of the hat (or bowl) alongside Arne Slot’s men, and suddenly eighth place looked like it would have been a smarter place to finish.
Liverpool’s last 16 opponents are fourth in Opta’s Global Power Rankings, ahead of teams like Barcelona, Internazionale, Manchester City and Bayern Munich. For comparison, Aston Villa, who finished eighth in the league phase, drew Club Brugge, who finished 24th and sit 32nd in the Power Rankings.
In fairness, it appears to have been a quirk of the setup of the league phase rather than the new format actively punishing teams for finishing higher up the table. Had PSG not made such a mess of their first few games of this season’s competition, they surely would have finished higher and Liverpool would have faced someone with a little less star power.
We should point out that the Opta supercomputer estimated that the French champions were handed the toughest draw of all 36 teams in the league phase when judging each opponent by their Opta Power Ratings, but it was still a concern for PSG when they were only on four points after five games. That said, Liverpool had the joint-second toughest draw and topped the league with seven wins from eight (L1).
A laboured 1-0 home win on Matchday 1 over Girona required a very fortunate own goal in the 90th minute to break the deadlock for PSG, while they only picked up one point from their next four games, losing to Arsenal, Atlético Madrid and Bayern Munich and drawing at home to PSV.
Luis Enrique’s side came roaring back in their last three games, though, beating Salzburg, Manchester City and Stuttgart, before thrashing fellow Ligue 1 side Brest 10-0 on aggregate in the knockout play-off round. It was the biggest ever aggregate win by a side who didn’t concede in a Champions League knockout tie, and the second biggest overall behind Bayern 12-1 Sporting CP in the 2008-09 round of 16.
Despite those early wobbles in the Champions League, PSG are having an impressive campaign, especially considering they lost Kylian Mbappé to Real Madrid for nothing last summer. The team has been rebuilt and, arguably, is even better than before.
On Wednesday, they host a Liverpool side comfortably top of the Premier League, ahead of Arsenal by 13 points having played a game more and with just one defeat in their 28 games (W20 D7). PSG also boast a 13-point advantage in Ligue 1 but having played the same number of games as their nearest challenger Marseille (24). They have won 19, drawn four and are yet to lose in the league this season.
This is only the fourth time a team has remained undefeated after 24 games of a Ligue 1 season, after PSG in 1985-86 (26) and 2015-16 (27) and Nantes in 1994-95 (32). No team has ever finished a Ligue 1 season unbeaten. They are one of only two teams unbeaten this season across Europe’s top 10 leagues, along with Galatasaray.
Luis Enrique’s side also have 62 points, averaging 2.58 points per game so far. The record at the end of a Ligue 1 season is 2.53 (PSG in 2015-16).
PSG vs Liverpool
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5 days ago David SegarIt was a slightly rocky start to the campaign, particularly in Europe, but since their 1-0 loss away to Bayern in the Champions League in late October, PSG haven’t lost in any competition. They did have to settle for back-to-back draws against Nantes and Auxerre immediately after their defeat in Munich, but their 3-0 win at Salzburg following that was the start of quite a run that remains ongoing.
Since (and including) that victory in Austria on 10 December, PSG have played 20 games in all competitions, winning 18 and drawing just two, and one of those draws was a game they still ultimately won on penalties at Lens in the Coupe de France.
That run includes victories in each of their last 10, their longest winning run in all competitions since a 16-game winning streak from December 2015 to February 2016.
They will come face-to-face with the top-ranked team in Europe this week, though.
Liverpool have a good defensive record this season, especially in Europe. Three of their five goals conceded in the league phase of the Champions League came in their last game at PSV when they heavily rotated as they had already secured qualification for the last 16. After conceding in the early minutes of their 3-1 win at Milan on MD1, they didn’t let in another goal until the second half of MD7 in a 2-1 home victory against Lille.
They are likely to be tested in Paris, though. Of all teams in Europe’s top five leagues, PSG have scored the most goals in 2025 in all competitions, with an astonishing 54 in just 16 games. In fact, they’ve scored 21 goals in their last four matches, having never scored more in a four-match run in their history.
In total, PSG have found the net 66 times this season in Ligue 1, the fourth-highest tally after 24 games of a campaign in the 21st century behind themselves in 2017-18 (75) and 2018-19 (74), and Monaco in 2016-17 (70).
Long gone are the days of Mbappé linking up with Lionel Messi and Neymar to frighten all manner of opponents, though. In their place are slightly lesser-known names but a team that almost unquestionably has better balance.
While they have spread their goals out, the form of Ousmane Dembélé has been a big reason for those numbers, especially in recent weeks. The France attacker has scored 18 goals in 13 games since the turn of the year, more than any other player from Europe’s top five leagues in 2025.
Dembélé and Bradley Barcola have 60 goal involvements between them (Dembélé 26 goals, 6 assists; Barcola 17 goals, 11 assists) while Gonçalo Ramos has 12 goals and 5 assists from 24 appearances, though just 10 of those have been starts. Even impressive teenager Désiré Doué has seven goals and 10 assists to his name, so PSG have danger from all over.
Speaking of which, while Liverpool have a productive right-back in Trent Alexander-Arnold, PSG have someone just as crucial on the right side of their defence. Achraf Hakimi has created 73 chances from open play in all competitions this season; of players from Europe’s top five leagues, only Raphinha (88), Florian Wirtz (79), Mohamed Salah (77) and Dejan Kulusevski (74) have created more, and all have played at least four more games than the Moroccan.
As if all that wasn’t enough, PSG added Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to their ranks in January. The former Napoli winger has two goals and three assists in 10 games for his new side, and he pulled Liverpool all over the place two seasons ago in the Champions League when the Naples side beat the Merseysiders 4-1 in the group stage.
Since the start of the 2022-23 season, only Real Madrid’s Vinícius Júnior (170) has recorded more than Kvaratskhelia’s 169 carries ending with a shot or chance created in Europe’s top five leagues, meaning not only does he carry the ball a lot, but something often comes from it when he does.
They have added a winger who is superb in transition to a squad that already boasts some of the best in Europe.
Considering league and Champions League action this season, of all players from Europe’s top five leagues, Dembélé has totalled the most carries ending with a shot or chance created (79), while Barcola has the seventh most (57).
That could be an issue for Liverpool, especially if Dembélé does play from the right against Andy Robertson, who has had a tough season by his usually very high standards. Liverpool overall haven’t struggled often this season, but have found it difficult when up against teams who have a lot of shots on the counter-attack.
The five games in which Liverpool have faced 5+ shots in transition in the Premier League this season have been their 3-3 draw at Newcastle United in December (10), their 2-2 home draw with Fulham 10 days later (9) – though they did play most of that game a man down after Robertson was sent off – their 2-0 win at Bournemouth last month (8), the recent nervy 2-1 home win over Wolves (7) and their dramatic 2-2 draw at Everton (6). In each of those games at one time or another, it felt like Liverpool didn’t hold the same control they have become synonymous with under Slot.
It’s not just on the ball where PSG are dangerous. They’re aggressive off it as well.
Defensively, PSG have recorded the lowest PPDA (passes per defensive action) of teams in Europe’s top five leagues this season (8.5), meaning they don’t allow the opposition to settle in possession, making challenges frequently to try and disrupt their opponents.
When it comes to pressures – a player from the defending team approaching the player in possession with the aim of either winning back the ball or limiting their passing options – they show an unmatched intensity in France. In Ligue 1 this season, 85.1% of PSG’s total pressures have been high pressures (when pressuring players are within 0-2 metres), while 56.8% of the opposition’s touches have been taken under high pressure from PSG. These are both comfortably the highest percentages for both in Ligue 1.
Back to their proficiency on the ball, and Luis Enrique’s side can break the lines with passes as well as carries. They boast three of the four players with the most line-breaking passes in Ligue 1 this season. Marseille’s Pierre-Emile Højbjerg has the most by some distance (364), but Vitinha (278), Marquinhos (245) and Lucas Beraldo (242) are next in line.
Vitinha has developed into one of the most consistent midfielders in Europe. He has completed 92.9% of his passes in the opposition half in the Champions League this season (416/448), the best passing accuracy of any midfielder to attempt 300+ passes in the opposition half in the competition in 2024-25.
The Portugal international has also played the most line-breaking passes into the final third (162) in Ligue 1 this season, the most starting from inside the opposition half (191) and the second-most behind the defensive line (36) after Brest’s Kenny Lala (37).
It’s perhaps not too surprising that he gets so many opportunities to do so given how much of the ball PSG usually see. They have the second-highest average possession per game of any team from Europe’s top five leagues in all competitions this season (67.5%), behind only Bayern (69.0%).
Following their comfortable 4-1 win over Lille in Ligue 1 on Saturday, Luis Enrique said it was in some ways a dress rehearsal for how they will face Liverpool.
“We’re not going to change much. [The Lille game] was a test, Liverpool and Lille have similar styles,” he said. “We put them under such pressure that they could no longer play from the back, they had to play long.
“It will be different, it will be very complicated of course, but we are in the best period of the season. We’re going to play against the best team in Europe, who qualified brilliantly.
“But it’s not in our mentality to speculate, protect ourselves, stay defensive, we’re going to attack and we’re going to try to turn that in our favour.”
Slot may look to use a similar approach to the one he utilised against Man City last month, when Liverpool accepted they wouldn’t see much of the ball and tried to contain the hosts. It worked to good effect as they ran out 2-0 winners at the Etihad Stadium.
Slot utilised a sort of 4-2-2-2 formation that day, with Curtis Jones and Dominik Szoboszlai effectively playing as a pair of false nines. It worked a treat as the latter scored and assisted as the Reds secured three points relatively comfortably despite having just 33.7% possession.
Alexander-Arnold did struggle to contain City winger Jérémy Doku that day, being dribbled past 12 times, twice as often as in any other game this season. Doku ultimately didn’t produce much with it, not helped by the absence of Erling Haaland, but PSG’s wingers have proven they have end product. Liverpool managed that situation by doubling up and clearing crosses, but their success on Wednesday may depend on whether a more traditional striker in Ramos starts as a focal point, or if Luis Enrique continues to use Dembélé through the middle.
It will be a tough test for both teams and is one of the more intriguing ties of the Champions League last 16. One of the favourites to lift the trophy will emerge from it.
Ernest Hemingway said in his book A Moveable Feast: “There are only two places in the world where we can live happy – at home and in Paris.”
Arne Slot will be hoping he’s right, but Luis Enrique’s side will pose a big threat.
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Goals Galore, Ball Carries and High Pressures: Why PSG Can Be a Big Threat to Liverpool’s Champions League Hopes Opta Analyst.
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