Might the Chicago Cubs finally sign a large pre-arbitration extension for the first time in over a decade? Ohhhhh probably not.
But what Sahadev Sharma wrote today about Pete Crow-Armstrong certainly caught my eye:
“With their current budget structure, the Cubs front office would be wise to approach Crow-Armstrong about the possibility of an extension. There is always a risk that negotiations don’t go as hoped and the player comes away with a sour feeling about the organization. The player could also not live up to the hype.
But the payoff if the player breaks out would be huge. It’s how Atlanta has built such a strong team and a strategy many smaller-market teams around the league use to compete while staying within their spending limits. Bringing this to Crow-Armstrong and his agents at CAA is something the front office would be open to doing this spring.”
Overall, the article is mostly about praising what PCA has been and could be, and the extension take reads as mostly speculative, so I wouldn’t go running and telling folks that THE SIDES ARE IN TALKS! or anything like that. Still, that last sentence there certainly does suggest there may be real interest, at least on one side.
Of course, even if the Cubs front office has interest in what has been – for them – an exceedingly rare practice, that doesn’t mean Pete Crow-Armstrong would feel the same way.
On the one hand, PCA has shown impact-level offensive ability in the big leagues only for about two months. Given that so much of his value is tied to his athleticism and speed, maybe he wants to lock down a long-term deal while he has the chance, and just in case Wrigley’s brick wall takes a shot at him one of these years. Moreover, he still has less than a full season of service time, and cannot be a free agent for another six years.
On the other hand, PCA is only just about to turn 23. He got a big signing bonus out of the draft. He does have that big offensive potential to pair with the speed and defense. He’s six years away from free agency, yes, but he’s only two years away from arbitration, where he’ll be a Super Two and get four cracks at raises. It’s possible he’s not all that eager to give up possible future gains for a guarantee today.
As the article notes, there are some historical comps for pre-arbitration outfielders, such as Corbin Carroll (8/$111M) and Michael Harris (8/$72M), each with options tacked on, but you could argue those are a bit lofty compared to what PCA has yet accomplished. You also have some others like Jackson Chourio (8/$82M), Ronald Acuña Jr. (8/$100M), and Luis Robert (6/$50M), though those three also come with some unique circumstances, tied both to timing and performance. You can move to the infield and find deals for other defensively-inclined, some-offensive-projection types, and you’ll generally see a similar range. No comp is perfect.
Still, I think if you were talking about something in that eight-year, $80-ish million range, with team options thereafter, why wouldn’t the Cubs be interested? I know they tend not to want to lock in that level of guaranteed money to pre-arb players because of the risk involved, but that’s the kind of risk they SHOULD be willing to absorb if they’re going to operate on such a fixed budget.
I think PCA would be the real question, and just what kind of guarantee he would need in order to give up a few free agent years so far in advance. That’s where the sides might just not be able to match up.
I’m very curious to know whether this is a real thing being explored – this is the time of year for it – or if it’s mostly something the front office would be happy to float, but knows they couldn’t actually get close to a deal. Either way, you can expect reporting on the topic to be challenging to come by, since it’s exactly the kind of thing that Jed Hoyer and Co. really do not like to let out into the open.
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