Let me start with: oof.
I can get into all the explanations here – and I will – but at the front-end I just want to note how much it stings that the Cubs are very likely now to lose a promising outfield prospect for close to nothing because of some flukey timing things (and also, concededly, some performance questions).
Today, to make room on the 40-man roster for Justin Turner, the Chicago Cubs will reportedly designate Alexander Canario for assignment, per Jesse Rogers on X. Canario, 24, who offers excellent contact quality, was battling for one of the final bench spots on the roster. He has the ability to play good defense in the corner outfield spots, passable defense in center field, and was starting to learn some first base. He would’ve been an imperfect fit for the roster, but there was a way to make it work. It really stinks that it’s not going to happen.
From here, the Cubs will have a week to trade, waive, or release Canario. Because of his considerable upside, there’s a CHANCE the Cubs could net a flyer prospect in trade, but a waiver claim by a rebuilding club seems substantially more likely (for the same reasons the Cubs are letting him go). On the very slim chance he doesn’t get claimed, the Cubs could outright Canario to Iowa. There would also be a chance in that case that the Cubs let Canario sign overseas to mash and make some money.
So why is this happening?
Well, there are a few reasons.
First, the biggest one: he’s out of minor league options. Because Alexander Canario had to go on the 40-man all the way back before the Cubs even acquired him in the Kris Bryant trade, he’s used up his minor league option years all while getting only 45 big league plate appearances. That means he was going to have to make the Cubs’ Opening Day roster or else hit waivers anyway. The Cubs have simply accelerated that process on the arrival of Turner, who pretty clearly is taking the right-handed bench power job. Doing so could give Canario a better chance to latch on with a team that has a spot for him on the 26-man roster.
Second, we just don’t know if Canario can actually succeed in the big leagues yet, especially when coming off the bench. He was still good at Triple-A post-injury (.243/.336/.514/116 wRC+), but it came with a strikeout rate over 30% and a significant issue making contact in the zone (that’s one that usually bodes very, very poorly in the big league transition).
Third, the outfield group in the medium term remains crowded. You have more starters on the big league team than spots already (with Seiya Suzuki as the DH), you have two higher-upside prospects on the 40-man with options remaining (Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie), and you have two non-roster guys in camp vying to become near-term depth at Iowa (Brett Bateman and Christian Franklin). Throw in the small chance that the Cubs may also have to accommodate other up-and-coming bats in the corner outfield spots and suddenly the squeeze is severe.
In this way, the situation is a whole lot like with Nelson Velazquez a year and a half ago: a slugging outfielder with tons of power and tons of holes in his swing, out of minor league options and with no fit on the Cubs’ big league roster. The Cubs were able to make a trade in that case (for Jose Cuas, who struggled and was later let go).
We’ll probably always wonder what might’ve been if Canario hadn’t suffered that catastrophic double-injury in winter ball a couple years ago (shoulder injury and ankle injury on the same play at first base, both requiring surgery). He came back strong at the plate, relatively speaking, but the lost time slowed his trajectory, and possible cost him some critical athleticism. Time will tell on that one.
In six months, the Cubs have lost Brennen Davis (minor league deal with the Yankees) and Alexander Canario (probably) for nothing. That’s just wild. I’m not saying it’s wrong, given how things played out, but it’s just not something I would’ve seen coming a few years ago. Hopefully both guys have success in the year ahead, wherever it takes them.
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