Six weeks ago it was a foregone conclusion that the Conservatives would win the 2025 election (it's due in October or earlier) and Pierre Poilievre would become the next Prime Minister.
Then three big things happened:
Trudeau was way past his best-before date and widely disliked in Canada but this poll shows that presumptive Liberal leadership winner Mark Carney could get a fresh look. That shows that Canadians dislike Trudeau personally more than Liberal policies (though I'd argue they really dislike the immigration policy post-covid).
The other problem is that Poilevre wasn't hard enough on Trump and took a soft line. That wasn't what Canadians wanted to hear when they were blind-sided by Trump's talk of annexation.
It's all led to some real chaos and a Conservative Party that's searching for a message. Poilevre polls very well with men and has been trying to soften his image with women but, unfortunately for him, Carney is almost a perfect foil as he scores well with women voters.
I still think that Conservatives win a majority as Trump's attacks cool and Conservatives re-focus on domestic problems but it's much more uncertain than I thought. If polls continue in this direction and Liberals win, I expect a negative reaction in the loonie. That said, Carney is still a decided shift to the right from Trudeau and isn't someone that markets would be fearful of.
As for the timing of an election: Carney is riding high and he promised to call an election immediately if he wins the leadership race on March 9.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.Hence then, the article about canadian election polls take a big turn as mark carney surges was published today ( ) and is available on forex live ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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