Sir Keir Starmer faces tests on several fronts in the days and weeks ahead, including from Donald Trump, standing up to Reform and easing fresh concerns over the UK economy.
Much has happened in the seven months since the Prime Minister took office, with the return of an unpredictable US ally, the surging popularity on home soil of Reform, and what it all means for Britain’s status around the world creating extra tests as the Government fights to stave off increasing economic uncertainty.
Here’s what you need to know about four of the key tests which lie ahead for Starmer.
As Reform UK’s popularity among voters continues to rise, the Prime Minister appears ready to go toe-to-toe with Farage when it comes to migration.
square REFORM UK Labour insiders urge Starmer to be tougher on migration to beat Reform
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Amid fears the public thinks his government is not curbing levels of illegal immigration despite deportations being at their highest level since 2017, Starmer and Labour will take the fight to Reform by publishing a series of videos showing the “journey” of an illegal immigrant being deported, The Times reports.
That’s expected to happen on Monday, with the PM reportedly set to use the first vote on Labour’s border bill to make his case.
Meanwhile, Labour have launched a series of adverts with Reform-style branding and messaging, boasting about how many people the government has deported, in a bid to imitate the far-right party, The Guardian reported.
According to the latest figures, 16,400 were deported in Labour’s first six months in power, while the number of migrants in 2024 crossing the English Channel in small boats was up by a quarter on the previous year.
The statistics say 36,816 people made the journey in 2024, a jump of 25 per cent from the 29,437 who arrived in 2023, according to provisional figures from the Home Office.
However, the total is down 20 per cent on the record 45,774 arrivals in 2022.
Chagos deal dilemma
The Prime Minister’s decision to return the Chagos Islands to Mauritius followed guidance set out by the Attorney General, Richard Hermer KC. His official legal advice is that Britain has an “obligation” to return the islands to Mauritian control, while Starmer wants to retain a strategic military base on the island to be kept under US-UK control.
Starmer has already faced scrutiny from the likes of Farage and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch over whether it is in the UK’s best interest to push through the much-discussed deal, through which sovereignty of the archipelago would be returned to Mauritius.
However, the Prime Minister is seeking approval from Trump on such a deal. The US President’s new administration is yet to express a formal stance on the matter, but figures including secretary of state Marco Rubio have previously voiced their opposition. There is also a possibility that the Trump administration could vetoe any such deal.
This causes an additional complication for Starmer, where the position of Trump could clash with the guidance laid out by his Attorney general. Bloomberg reported, this could leave Hermer in an untenable position in the eyes of Labour officials, adding to the list of problems for the Prime Minister.
A momentary sigh of relief may have been let out in Downing Street this week at Trump’s suggestion that the UK may be spared when it comes to his wide-ranging threat of tariffs.
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The US President has already imposed tariffs on China – who have since announced counter-tariffs over their own – after pausing levies aimed at Canada and Mexico at the last minute.
Trump has also said the European Union will “definitely” be taxed as well but mused on Monday that he thinks a trade deal “can be worked out” before the UK shares a similar fate.
Starmer will hope that is the case, with both sides previously voicing an interest in striking a longer-term deal.
The UK has a strong existing trade relationship with its old ally across the pond, which the Government may need to leverage strategically in order to coax Trump fully back onside for now.
Even then, there’s a chance the President’s continued imposing of tariffs with the bloc and other countries around the world could have a knock-on effect on British consumers, while the PM faces heightening pressure to pick a side in the looming trade war.
That all comes as Rachel Reeves faces fresh concerns around the state of the UK’s economy after the Bank of England forecast higher inflation and lower growth while cutting interest rates.
Projections from the Bank included the UK’s economic growth forecast for the year halving, from 1.5 to 0.75 per cent, and inflation spiking as high as 3.7 per cent.
square WELFARE Labour may have to revive Tory plan to slash benefits by £400 a month
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And economists believe that a combination of lower growth, higher borrowing costs and higher-than-expected interest rates will have wiped out the £9.9bn in “fiscal headroom” that Reeves set herself last October to stay within her borrowing rules.
The Chancellor has a few options to try and turn things around growth-wise, including reversing her Budget tax rises and boosting trade, but she will likely be forced to make some more tough choices.
If they are to stick to their spending plans, Labour may also have to weigh up reviving Tory plans to cut up to £400 a month from some benefits.
Meanwhile, polling carried out exclusively for The i Paper last week revealed the Conservatives are more trusted among voters than Labour to handle the economy, after a slump in the UK’s performance since the Government took power.
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