Super Bowl 2025 best bets: Leaning hard into Eagles' underdog status vs. Chiefs ...Middle East

It’s here. After 284 games, this year’s NFL season is finally at its terminus. Either the Philadelphia Eagles or Kansas City Chiefs will be bathed in confetti at the end of the 2025 Super Bowl, ready to celebrate into the morning hours in New Orleans.

While the betting public is high on a Kansas City three-peat, our resident betting expert, the Rhode Island Scumbag, is fading the trends. And you know what? I’m with him.

Let’s get right into it. Scumbag analysis and plays are in blockquotes below. My non-Scumbag bets follow.

We have arrived at the culmination of the NFL season, hungry to turn a profit after a rough go in the championship round. I’m looking to make contrarian plays to try and avoid going with the crowd and rooting for the sportsbooks to turn a profit.

I leaned too hard in the other direction in the last round, and paid dearly for it. At the risk of being in complete harmony with Christian’s picks, here are a couple wagers I like for the Big Game ™.

Scumbag Play No. 1: Philadelphia Eagles moneyline winners over the Kansas City Chiefs (-105)

Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Here is my thought process. My sportsbook is currently offering Philadelphia at +1 but at -115 odds. Since the outcome won’t end up in a tie regardless, the one point advantage doesn’t do much for me. I’d rather take the improved odds on the moneyline and hope for the best.

Ultimately, I think that Philadelphia has the defensive prowess and offensive weapons to not only keep up with, but flat out beat Kansas City and prevent their three-peat from becoming a reality.

Scumbag play No. 2: 2025 Super Bowl total UNDER 49.5

Steph Chambers/Getty Images

In terms of the under, I can still get it at 49.5, even though I’ve seen it drop to 48.5 on many of the betting sites. The public seems to really like taking the over here, leading me to lean towards the under. A 27-21 final score is completely in the realm of possibility and with both defenses playing well, I am comfortable with this wager.

Bonus prop bets!

Here are a few bonus scoring props with some decent odds that I can also get behind:

Last week: 0-2, -2 units Regular season: 35-26-1 (.574), +9 units Playoffs: 4-4-1 (.500), +0 units

My non-Scumbag pick: Eagles alt line -2.5 over the Chiefs (one unit to win 1.5)

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

I don’t love the payout here; I thought a four-point swing would get me closer to a +200 reward. But that would take a 5.5-point spread to get there and that’s too risky a line against Patrick Mahomes and his endless string of postseason magic.

So why do the Eagles win when Kansas City keeps finding ways to escape close games? Allow me to plagiarize myself.

Saquon Barkley has run through better defenses than the Chiefs, as well rested as they may be. As Kansas City creeps toward the line of scrimmage, it will leave one-on-one opportunities for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith — the only two players in the league to rank in the top 10 in both expected points added (EPA) per target and catch rate over expected (CROE).

That’s a real pick-your-poison situation before getting to a top five offensive line that can keep Jalen Hurts from his danger zone of throwing while pressured. On the other side of the ball, well:

via rbsdm.com and the author

Since the halfway point of 2024, the Philadelphia defense has been best in the NFL by a significant margin. There’s some liability in a secondary with two different rookies playing significant roles, but both Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have improved throughout the season and clearly have head coach Nick Sirianni’s trust. Each played a team-high 75 snaps in the NFC title game.

Do the Chiefs have the horses to wear that group thin? I’m not certain. Xavier Worthy is an X factor, Travis Kelce will have some devastating moments and someone like Noah Gray or Justin Watson will rise up for a big play no one expected. But they’ll need to do this consistently to win the 2025 Super Bowl. I don’t see it.

Look, am I gonna lose my mind when DeJean or Mitchell gets called for a soft pass interference or hold late in the fourth quarter? It’s probably a coin flip! But the Eagles have been the better team this season; now’s the chance to prove it.

Bonus prop! Justin Watson OVER 0.5 receptions. He’s the premier deep threat in the Chiefs lineup (seriously) and feels destined to be on the receiving end of a big, vaguely unbelievable Mahomes throw in a big moment.

Noah Gray longest reception OVER 9.5 yards. See Watson above. Mahomes is gonna elevate some guys in big moments. Gray has had at least one catch of 10-plus yards in six of his last seven games.

Last week: 1-1, +0 units Regular season: 33-27 (.550), +9 units Playoffs: 5-4 (.556), +1 unit

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