The Bank of Canada had flagged in its December statement that it was likely to revise down 2025 GDP forecasts.
Canadian forecasts compared to October:
US growth edged up to 2.6% (prev 2.4%)China growth higher at 4.9% (prev 4.3%)Euro area lower at 0.8% (prev 1.2%)Global growth steady at 3.1%
Critically, these forecasts don't include the potential impacts of tariffs.
Domestically, there is only a 0.3 pp downgrade in growth but the composition is significantly changed:
Consumption growth forecast nearly doubled to 1.3% (prev 0.7%)Business investment sharply lower at 0.1% (prev 0.4%)Exports dramatically reduced to 0.6% (prev 1.5%)Final domestic demand slightly higher at 2.4% (prev 2.2%)That's asking a lot from the consumer.
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