Few alliances in modern geopolitics are as controversial or consequential as the one between the US and Saudi Arabia. Under Donald Trump, this relationship has evolved into an unabashedly transactional partnership, breaking with past traditions and reshaping American foreign policy priorities.
From record-breaking arms deals to strategic manoeuvring in the Middle East, the stakes in Trump’s second term are higher than ever.
As Riyadh and Washington navigate mutual interests and some deep-seated tensions, the question remains: What will Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) truly achieve for each other?
Breaking from the tradition of US presidents visiting the UK before any other country after taking office, Trump’s first overseas trip in 2017 was to Saudi Arabia. Now in his second term, Trump will prioritise strengthening America’s partnership with the kingdom.
Trump recently suggested that he would perhaps once again make his first official overseas trip to Saudi Arabia, this time around in exchange for substantial Saudi investments in the US economy. Trump and MBS had a phone call last week, in which the kingdom’s de facto ruler congratulated Trump on his inauguration and pledged at least $600bn worth of investments in the US throughout Trump’s second term. Although that figure is unrealistic, the optics of an early “win” for Trump matter.
While addressing the World Economic Forum in Davos one day later, Trump said that he will ask MBS, whom he called a “fantastic guy”, to round up the $600bn pledge to “around $1trn”. Trump asserted that the Saudis would do this “because we’ve been very good to them”.
Donald Trump makes a special remote address at the 55th annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland (Photo: Yves Herman/Reuters)In his second term, Trump will likely be even more transactional than in his first, explained Dr Andreas Krieg, an associate professor in the defence studies department of King’s College London. “The transactional approach that Trump is taking I think is mostly in favour of Gulf politics. Gulf leaders are quite happy with the transactional approach. It’s predictable. You pay for something, and you usually get it,” he told The i Paper.
Saudi Arabia has long effectively deployed a transactional approach to its ties with African, Asian, and European countries. Although many of the kingdom’s partners emphasise the “historical nature of their ties” with Riyadh, Dr Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, explained to The i Paper that “the Saudi leadership has become more transactional and is ultimately interested in the bottom line and what partners can deliver”.
Seeing Trump as a “trustworthy dealmaker and businessman” who sticks to deals, Gulf states prefer his style of leadership over his predecessor whose “opaque set of values” were difficult for Gulf Arab leaders to understand, noted Dr Krieg.
Based on everything which he achieved during his first term, along with his campaign rhetoric and actions taken since just beginning his second term, Trump is determined to move ahead with his “America First” strategy.
“If Saudi Arabia, or anyone else for that matter, can present Trump with win-win scenarios that would benefit both sides, the American President is likely to adopt it. There is no reason to suspect that the Saudis will not do just that,” Dr Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told The i Paper.
Taking advantage of the fact that hardly anyone in Washington is still expressing outrage over the journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder and Saudi Arabia’s “peacemaker” image amid the Ukraine conflict, Riyadh is positioned to secure an increasingly important role in the future of US foreign policy amid Trump’s presidency.
A demonstrator holds a poster with a picture of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi outside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, where he was killed (Osman Orsal/Reuters)The Saudi leadership will attempt to use its influence to put the kingdom at the “centre of American activity in the region” and establish Riyadh as a “more comfortable partner for the Trump administration than any other regional country, including Israel”, according to Patrick Theros, the former US ambassador to Qatar.
“At the moment Saudi Arabia has more goodies that the US wants then the other way around. US interests in the region remain fixed on the continued free flow of oil and gas in the world markets. Saudi Arabia remains one of the pre-eminent world markets for American exports, especially weaponry and capital goods. Saudi Arabia has an enormous amount of cash to dangle in front of Trump,” Theros told The i Paper.
When working with the Saudis, Trump will of course be focused on securing lucrative deals for companies linked to his family, creating more overlap between Trump’s own business interests and Washington’s foreign policy. Dar Al Arkan (Dar Global’s parent company) has deep ties with The Trump Organisation. In recent years, the two have signed deals for luxury towers, villas, a resort, and a golf course in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman. Close to Trump is Yasir al-Rumayyan, MBS’s confidant who heads Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and chairs the LIV Golf promotion.
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“In the past, Trump has seen no need to distinguish between his financial interests and the national interests of the United States, and he is likely to continue pursuing both whether or not he holds the office of the presidency,” commented Dr Kamrava.
“The business dealings of Trump family-linked businesses in Saudi Arabia over the past four years will undoubtedly influence the new US administration’s policy towards the kingdom. The personal tie-ups between the two will shape the administration’s approach to Saudi Arabia, but Trump will expect his Saudi counterparts to serve the broader interests of America First, so that the President can showcase the benefits of close ties with the kingdom to his political base,” Dr Quilliam told The i Paper.
“There remains a deep suspicion of Saudi Arabia in the US – amongst the political elite [and] public at large – and if Trump is to overcome such suspicions, he will have to demonstrate that strong relations benefit not only the US, but his base too. As such, we are likely to see the awarding of major contracts to Trump family-linked businesses, which the President will telegraph as successes for the US,” he added.
The limits of money
Underlying strategic factors and geopolitical tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia will not suddenly disappear because of Trump’s transactional foreign policy approach and Riyadh’s embrace of it.
Ryan Bohl, senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, holds that for all the investment pledges and supportive rhetoric from MBS, the new US administration will be challenged to persuade Riyadh to make changes that truly benefit Washington geopolitically.
For example, with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 depending on high levels of revenue from the kingdom’s hydrocarbon sector, Trump will have a difficult time convincing the Saudis to lower oil prices. Despite the fragile Gaza ceasefire, the kingdom joining the Abraham Accords, which Trump desperately wants, remains unrealistic largely due to public opinion in the kingdom and how high the costs of Israeli normalisation have become for Riyadh.
At the same time, Trump’s team will not be in a position to pull Saudi Arabia away from China given how much Riyadh values its relationship with Beijing, particularly within the Vision 2030 context. As much as challenging China will be a focus for Trump 2.0, “Saudi Arabia will not want to co-operate with Washington over trying to economically isolate China”, Bohl told The i Paper. “Saudi Arabia will want to play both sides as much as it can.”
Likewise, much of what Saudi Arabia desires from the US under Trump – from genuine US support for a Palestinian state to help with the kingdom’s nuclear industry and a formal American-Saudi defence treaty – will probably remain out of reach.
As Theros put it, “These may be deals too big even for the King of Dealmakers”.
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