At the outset of the war in Gaza, US officials counselled Israel to set its aims short of the total elimination of Hamas, noting that anything less would allow the group to claim victory.
The Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya vindicated that advice in his speech after the ceasefire was announced on Wednesday night.
“They openly stated their aim to eradicate the resistance,” he said. “Our brave fighters…stood steadfast until the very last moment of this war.”
Hamas has taken a battering during Israel’s unprecedented bombardment, losing thousands of fighters, much of its weapons stockpiles and manufacturing capacity, and its senior leadership.
But even Israel’s unsubstantiated claim to have killed 17,000 of the group’s fighters would leave at least as many still alive, according to pre-war estimates. Hamas has also been able to replenish its ranks.
The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said this week: “We assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost.”
An Israeli soldier secures a Hamas tunnel near the border with Israel in December. Many of the group’s tunnels have been restored during the war, according to a report (Photo: Amir Levy/Getty Images)Israeli commanders have been forced to return to locations in Gaza such as Jabalia several times after declaring them secure, as Hamas has returned to fill the vacuum.
The group has found ways to survive and even strengthen under the onslaught, according to a December research paper from the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank.
“[Hamas’] Qassam brigades have restored or preserved much of their tunnel systems, and in some cases even expanded them, while recycling unexploded Israeli rockets, bombs, and artillery shells to use as improvised explosive devices and produce new projectiles,” the authors found.
Hamas fighters are “waiting out Israel’s offensive in ‘hibernation mode’ – hiding in abandoned buildings and tunnels or escaping with fleeing civilians.”
In addition to its military capabilities, Hamas has also retained its position as the government of Gaza, and still operates a police force that allows it to control resources and exert control over rival factions and the wider population.
The former Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant and Israel Defence Forces (IDF) chief Herzi Halevi argued that the only way to defeat Hamas was to bring in another Palestinian-led government to replace it – an option also advocated by the Biden administration.
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Read More“As long as there’s no diplomatic process to develop a governing body in the Strip that isn’t Hamas, we’ll have to launch campaigns again and again to dismantle Hamas infrastructure,” said Halevi last May.
“The ones paying the price for the lack of decision-making are IDF soldiers,” said Gallant, noting that after Israeli operations finish in one part of Gaza, “Hamas re-establishes itself.”
Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has resisted calls for the Palestinian Authority (PA), which exercises limited self-government in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, to be given a role in Gaza.
The Israeli leader has justified this by claiming that the PA is too close to militant groups.
But many analysts believe Netanyahu is more comfortable with a designated terror organisation running Gaza than a group he might be compelled to negotiate with over Palestinian statehood – as demonstrated by years of co-operation with Hamas under his leadership before the 7 October 2023 attacks on Israel.
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